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Tag: Horse Racing Analysis

  • Your ANZAC Weekend Racing Guide: Top Picks, Feature Races & Where the Money’s Going

    Race 8 - Perth Cup 2007 | Michael_Spencer | Flickr

    Anzac Weekend Racing Across the Nation – Randwick, Flemington, Ascot & Morphettville Set to Roar!

    We’re set for a blockbuster weekend of racing that celebrates tradition, toughness, and the thrill of the turf.

    The spotlight shines brightest on the $5 million Kia Quokka in WA, the classic staying test of the VRC St Leger at Flemington, and South Australia’s crown jewel for fillies—the Australasian Oaks at Morphettville. With support acts like the Queen Of The South Stakes and the ANZAC Day Stakes, punters and fans are in for a feast of quality across all distances and states. Let’s dive into the runners, form, and value across the key cards.

    Flemington – Race 5 – ANZAC Day Stakes (1400m)

    📅 Thursday | 🕑 14:50 (local time)

    📝 Race Overview:
    A competitive edition with plenty of progressive juveniles. Five last-start winners line up, and there’s a mix of race experience and unexposed talent—classic ANZAC Stakes ingredients. Watch for late market moves, especially around the lone debutant, HIGHVOL.

    🔥 Best to Back Tip:
    Legacy Bound (Odds: ~$2.60)
    Blew them away last start and the form is stacking up. From a good draw and up in trip, he looks the clear one to beat.

    💎 Best Value Bet:
    Just Kick (Odds: ~$7.50)
    Eye-catching debut behind a talented winner. The step to 1400m is perfect and she profiles as a sharp improver.

    Flemington – Race 6 – VRC St Leger (2800m)

    📅 Thursday | 🕒 15:25 (local time)

    📝 Race Overview:
    The ultimate staying test for three-year-olds, with many venturing beyond 2400m for the first time. Expect tactics, tempo, and stamina to decide it. A great mix of lightly tried stayers and pedigrees bred to go all day.

    🔥 Best to Back Tip:
    Format (Odds: ~$4.60)
    Stable targets this race well and the tongue tie might unlock his best. Ready-made for 2800m and looks primed.

    💎 Best Value Bet:
    Wimmera Star (Odds: ~$26.00)
    Strong late last start and bred to appreciate this rise in trip. Massive price for one on the up.

    Morphettville – Race 6 – Queen Of The South Stakes (1600m)

    📅 Saturday | 🕒 15:27 (local time)

    📝 Race Overview:
    Classy fillies and mares contest this Group 2 mile. Progressive types and seasoned performers clash in what shapes as a truly run race. Those with a turn of foot and stamina should feature late.

    🔥 Best to Back Tip:
    Zloties (Odds: ~$3.70)
    Progressive and ready for the mile after strong Bendigo win. She looks poised to keep climbing the grades.

    💎 Best Value Bet:
    Wings of Song (Odds: ~$26.00)
    Great second-up stats and a sneaky run fresh. Can charge late off the right tempo.

    Morphettville – Race 7 – Australasian Oaks (2000m)

    📅 Saturday | 🕓 16:07 (local time)

    📝 Race Overview:
    Staying fillies do battle in the classic Oaks test. Many have been building nicely toward this trip, and the mix of eastern state invaders and in-form locals makes it a genuine contest.

    🔥 Best to Back Tip:
    Benagil (Odds: ~$3.70)
    Ideal prep and beautifully placed. Form around her stacks up and she maps to get the right run.

    💎 Best Value Bet:
    Movin Out (Odds: ~$5.50)
    Looked a staying type last start and brings real X-factor at double figures.

    Ascot (WA) – Race 8 – The Kia Quokka (1200m)

    📅 Saturday | 🕔 17:45 (local time)

    📝 Race Overview:
    WA’s newest and richest sprint is fast becoming a must-watch. A field packed with class sprinters from east and west line up, with early tempo and track position likely to prove decisive.

    🔥 Best to Back Tip:
    Overpass (Odds: ~$2.10)
    Returns to his happy hunting ground in top form. From a suitable draw, he’s the one they’ll all need to catch.

    💎 Best Value Bet:
    Front Page (Odds: ~$7.00)
    Has the speed to lead and the toughness to hold on. If the race falls into his lap, he could go all the way at juicy odds.

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  • All Aged Stakes Day – The Grand Finale of the Sydney Autumn Racing Carnival

    Big names, big money, and wide-open features – Group 1 glory on the line at Randwick.

    The curtain comes down on the Sydney Autumn Racing Carnival with a spectacular day at Royal Randwick, headlined by the Group 1 Schweppes All Aged Stakes and the Group 1 Moët & Chandon Champagne Stakes.

    After six brilliant weeks of racing, $41 million in prizemoney, and iconic performances across Royal Randwick and Rosehill Gardens, we finish with a flourish. Two prestigious Group 1s, rising stars, and tough veterans come together for one last epic showdown.

    Race 3 – Toyota Forklifts Frank Packer Plate (2000m)

    🧠 Overview:
    A classic edition of this 2000m Group 3, often a tricky race where late-season three-year-olds try to cap off their campaigns. SWIFTFALCON and FIRM AGREEMENT bring high-level G1 form and look to dominate here. The tempo should be even, suiting those who can finish strong late.

    🏇 Best to Back: #1 Swiftfalcon

    🔥 $1.80 – The proven class

    Why:
    Placed in both the Randwick Guineas and Rosehill Guineas, SWIFTFALCON has been racing at a high level all prep. He maps well, has a sharp turn of foot, and boasts a 3–1 record over key rival FIRM AGREEMENT in their matchups.

    • ✅ Genuine Group 1 credentials
    • ✅ Proven at Randwick
    • ✅ Versatile in all track conditions

    💰 Best Value: #7 Maison Louis

    💥 $14.00 –Sneaky improver

    Why:
    Coming off a strong Goulburn win, this gelding is flying under the radar. Handles the trip, continues to improve, and brings the sort of profile that can pop at odds in this race.

    • ✅ 2 wins this prep
    • ✅ On-speed style suits small field
    • ✅ Big odds for a live chance

    Race 6 – Myerplates JRA Plate (2000m)

    🧠 Overview:
    A more tactical affair than most, with a lack of obvious speed. BOIS D’ARGENT looks to control things up front with ENCAP stretching out to 2000m for the first time. Late swoopers like FLYING BANDIT and SOUNDS OF HEAVEN could have their say if the tempo is right.

    🏇 Best to Back: #2 Bois D’Argent

    🔥 $10.00 – Third-up & ready

    Why:
    Ran 4th in this race last year and comes into this off a pair of solid efforts against good horses. Peaks now third-up, maps to get the run of the race, and has the experience at this track and trip to take full advantage.

    • ✅ 3rd-up specialist
    • ✅ Strong late splits last start
    • ✅ Maps to settle on pace in a slowly run race

    💰 Best Value: #11 Sounds Of Heaven

    💥 $19.00 – Backing up with upside

    Why:
    On the quick back-up after hitting the line well last start. Wide draw shouldn’t worry her if the pace slackens and she’s got a late burst that suits this kind of tempo.

    • ✅ Tough mare with strong finish
    • ✅ Suited by slow tempo
    • ✅ Double-figure odds = must include in exotics

    Race 7 – Moët & Chandon Champagne Stakes (1600m)

    🧠 Overview:
    The grand final for the 2YOs over the mile. With several backing up from the Inglis Sires’ and Golden Slipper, experience matters. WITHIN THE LAW and TUPAKARA lead the market, but upsets are no stranger to this race. Map suggests a moderately run contest.

    🏇 Best to Back: #7 Within The Law

    🔥 $4.80 – Elite juvenile form

    Why:
    Placed in the Golden Slipper and still improving. This colt has proven he can handle the big stage, and the step to 1600m looks perfect at this point in his prep.

    • ✅ Golden Slipper 3rd
    • ✅ Tough & consistent
    • ✅ Peak fitness on the seven-day back-up

    💰 Best Value: #9 Spicy Liu

    💥 $21.00 – Untapped and unbeaten

    Why:
    Three-from-three to kick off her career, including a gritty last-start win in stakes company. She keeps defying expectations and stepping up when asked. Unknown at the mile but has shown the toughness and racing style to give this a shake at a juicy quote.

    • ✅ Unbeaten from 3 starts
    • ✅ Winning form is good form
    • ✅ Strong late sectionals – will relish the tempo

    Race 8 – Schweppes All Aged Stakes (1400m)

    🧠 Overview:
    One of the great weight-for-age sprints of the season. A high-quality edition with depth and angles galore. Expect a genuine tempo with BELCLARE and BRIASA up on speed, BROADSIDING stalking just behind.

    🏇 Best to Back: #14 Broadsiding

    🔥 $6.00– Group 1 class, perfect setup

    Why:
    He was enormous in the Rosehill Guineas and drops back to 1400m in a setup that looks very deliberate. The soft draw allows for tactical flexibility and he’s been strong at this level before.

    • ✅ Classy 3YO with strong WFA credentials
    • ✅ Perfect draw to sit close
    • ✅ Handles all conditions

    💰 Best Value: #9 Magic Time

    💥 $11.00– Ready to peak

    Why:
    Placed behind Think About It in the Canterbury Stakes, and this looks like her target run. She’s a genuine Group 1 performer who handles Randwick well.

    • ✅ Group 1 placed this prep
    • ✅ Strong finishing ability
    • ✅ Can settle closer from barrier 5

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  • Saturday Racing at Randwick – Expert Group 1 Picks for The Championships Day 1

    The Grand Finals of Australian racing have arrived.

    Royal Randwick kicks off The Championships with a blockbuster 10-race card this Saturday, headlined by four Group 1s and a whopping $12.9 million in prizemoney. It’s Sydney racing at its finest — and we’ve done the form so you don’t have to, read on for our Expert Group 1 Picks.

    With a Heavy 8 surface and the rail in the true, conditions will be testing, but the big guns are out in force. The ATC Australian Derby, Doncaster Mile, T J Smith Stakes and Inglis Sires’ all feature deep fields, serious form lines, and elite betting opportunities.

    From exposed champions to rising stars, our expert team breaks down each G1 with clear verdicts, betting confidence ratings, and free tips you can trust — including best bets, value runners over $6, and longshots to watch late.

    Whether you’re a casual punter or a form fanatic, this is the weekend to dial in. Let’s find you that edge in the big ones at Randwick.

    Race 6 – Inglis Sires’ (1400m)

    🧠 Overview:
    The form is lightly exposed, with most runners still early in their careers. Key contenders bring strong recent finishes and untapped potential into this Group 1 contest. The race tempo looks moderate to quick, with a few that like to roll forward and others happy to stalk.

    🏇 Best to Back: #5 State Visit

    🔥 $11.00 – Represents strong each-way value

    Why:
    He was one of the most visually impressive closers in the Pago Pago Stakes, clocking slick sectionals despite settling too far back. This step to 1400m looks ideal based on his late closing strength, and with a slightly better midfield position, he’s one of the most progressive in the field.

    • ✅ 100% place rate from two starts
    • ✅ Handles pressure late; race-fit
    • ✅ Looks like he’ll relish the 1400m
    • ✅ Jason Collett sticks

    💰 Best Value: #6 Buffalo

    💥 $18.00 – Genuine blowout chance

    Why:
    Buffalo hasn’t done much wrong and looks like a colt that’s just warming up. His maiden win was dominant, and he’s bred to appreciate this trip. Given his tactical speed and improvement to come, he could easily land just off the pace and run a cheeky race at big odds.

    • ✅ Strong closing figures at Newcastle
    • ✅ Progressive profile
    • ✅ Trainer targeting this race from early on

    Race 7 – T J Smith Stakes (1200m)

    🔥 Group 1 Sprinting Royalty returns with a deep field of fresh and fit top-liners. Genuine speed expected with Overpass and possibly Magic Time taking up the running, while the big closers like Sunshine In Paris and Joliestar will be launching late. Track pattern could be crucial.

    🏇 Best to Back: #1 Overpass

    💥 Currently $6.00

    Why:
    He’s one of the few who can absorb pressure on speed and keep going, and his first-up record is excellent (4 wins from 8 fresh). His trial work has been faultless, and he comes off a WFA Group 1 win in Perth. If it turns into a leader’s track, he could pinch it from the front. This field will test him, but he rarely runs poorly when fresh.

    • ✅ 4x first-up wins
    • ✅ 4 from 6 top-two finishes at Randwick
    • ✅ Could control the race tempo

    💣 Best Value: #6 Sunshine In Paris

    💰 Currently $9.00

    Why:
    She’s a proven Group 1 mare who was simply enormous late first-up in the Canterbury Stakes – the race shape was against her, and yet she still powered home with intent. Back to 1200m, she profiles beautifully second-up where she’s 2 from 3. Her late figures from the Champions Sprint stack up with the best in the country. This is her race to peak.

    • ✅ 3:2-0-1 second-up
    • ✅ Proven Randwick performer
    • ✅ Set to peak now and maps for a slingshot late

    Race 8 – Doncaster Mile (1600m)

    ✍️ Race Overview

    Hard to go past the proven class of Tom Kitten, who is now third-up, gets back to a Randwick mile, and has drawn for a suck run. Linebacker is the value, a lightly raced colt peaking at the right time with no weight. Stefi Magnetica resumes fresh off strong trial form and should be charging late. Watch for Militarize, who resumes after a long layoff but has trialled well — one for exotics if there’s speed on.

    💨 Predicted Race Tempo

    Tempo: Genuine
    On-Pace: 1 Gringotts, 21 Rise At Dawn, 6 Osipenko
    Back in the Field: 3 Tom Kitten, 20 Linebacker, 13 Kovalica, 14 Stefi Magnetica

    💣 Best to Back: #20 Linebacker

    💥 Currently $6.00

    Tumbles to 49kg off a brave Randwick Guineas win where he was strongest through the line. Lightly raced with upside, and maps similarly to Celestial Legend last year who won this race off the same setup. He’ll land midfield with cover and look to produce late. Right stable, right time.

    💥 Currently $8.00

    🔥 Next Best Runner: #3 Tom Kitten

    The more you look at recent replays, the more Tom Kitten stands out. Winner of the All-Star Mile and arguably underdone in the George Ryder, yet still finished with purpose behind Gringotts. Gets the soft draw in barrier one, handles all conditions, and looks set to peak third-up with a perfect trailing run behind the pace.

    Race 9 – Australian Derby (2400m)

    🏇 Best to Back: #18 Aeliana

    💥 Currently: ~$3.30

    She was luckless in the Rosehill Guineas where she found traffic and flashed late – a clear sign she’s screaming out for the 2400m. Has a handy turn of foot, maps to settle midfield with cover, and crucially drops weight as a filly. Her prep looks perfectly timed to peak here. The tempo and draw suit – she just needs even luck.

    💣 Best Value Runner: #10 Imperialist

    💥 Currently: ~$101

    Totally overlooked in early markets despite closing well in the Alister Clark. He’s bred to stay and looked like he wanted every bit of the 2400m that day. With a more positive ride and sharper timing from the jockey, he could surprise at big odds. Great roughie for exotics and small win play.

    Colossalbet understands the ramifications of gambling beyond your means and has implemented various safeguards to protect our clients and their interests.

    Colossalbet works with Gambling Help Online to offer assistance to anyone who is directly or indirectly affected by gambling. If your gambling has become problematic or the behaviour of a loved one has become a concern, Gambling Help Online offers a range of free support and counselling services about problem gambling in a variety of languages and in a safe and anonymous environment. You can contact Gambling Help Online at any time for free and confidential advice and support by:

    Calling 1800 858 858.

    Visiting their website https://www.gamblinghelponline.org.au/