The Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes (1200m) headlines a blockbuster 10-race card at Caulfield this Saturday, with Victoria’s premier juvenile race attracting a full field of 16 chasing the $2 million prize purse, read on for our best bets…
A fine day is forecast in Melbourne, with a top of 36 degrees, ensuring ideal conditions for racing. The track is rated a Good 4, and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit. It’s going to be a fair and fast racing surface.
The first race is set to jump at 12:15pm AEDT, kicking off a day stacked with quality, including the Futurity Stakes (Race 7), Oakleigh Plate (Race 9), and the Victoria Gold Cup (Race 10). Read on for our professional insights and best betting plays.
2025 Blue Diamond Stakes Preview – Wide Open & Up for Grabs
This year’s Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes (1200m) looks an absolute raffle, and the market reflects just that.
Field Of Play ($5) heads the betting after proving too strong in the Group 3 Blue Diamond Prelude (1100m), but there’s little separating him and a host of challengers. My Gladiola ($7) and Cherish Me ($7) share the second line of betting, while Palm Angel ($9) adds to the intrigue after claiming the Group 2 Prelude last start.
For punters hunting value, Tempted ($10), Devil Night ($13), and The Playwright ($13) all found early support at double figures when markets first went up.
Speed Map – Who Takes Up the Running?
Expect The Playwright to roll forward from barrier three and control the tempo under Regan Bayliss, with My Gladiola and Wiltshire Square pressing on from wider draws.
The market elect Field Of Play should land just off the pace, with Devil Night and Palm Angel using their inside gates to sit handy.
The likes of Cherish Me and Tempted will get back, but both have shown they can rattle home off a genuine tempo—expect them to be flying late if the race sets up for the closers.
Form & Key Chances
Cherish Me brings an untapped formline to the Blue Diamond, having bolted in on debut at Geelong in early January. She put two lengths on Cavalry Girl, who’s been touted as one of Victoria’s sharpest juveniles, and her closing sectionals suggest she’ll eat up the 1200m. If Jamie Mott can weave a path from the back, she’s right in this.
Tempted was a horror watch in the Group 3 Widden Stakes (1100m) when beaten by The Playwright, but he gets conditions to suit here. Meanwhile, Field Of Play is unbeaten in two and has done nothing wrong in the lead-up—his Prelude win was authoritative, and he deserves favouritism.
Realistically, there are at least six legitimate winning hopes in the 2025 Blue Diamond Stakes, so quaddie punters should be going wide in what shapes as one of the most open renewals in years.
Read on for our best bets and value plays across the card this Saturday…
Race 1. (12:15) Hkjc World Pool Hcp 1100m
🏆 Best to Back: Pondalowie ($4.40)
Pondalowie had no luck first up in the WJ Adams, getting shuffled back in an on-speed dominated race. She ran the second-fastest final 200m of the event and will be much better suited rising to 1100m, where she boasts a strong record. With added fitness and a more forward position in transit, she gets her chance to strike.
💰 Best Value: Mrs Chrissie ($6.00)
Mrs Chrissie didn’t get a look in last start in the WJ Adams, where Philosopher clocked an electric 32-second final 600m. That meant those back in the field had zero chance, but she now returns to her preferred track and can improve sharply. At each-way odds, she’s worth keeping onside.
🎯 Race Insights
🔹 Tonkin ($5.50) is a major player if she runs here instead of Friday night at Moonee Valley. She absolutely bolted in last start, winning by 4.5 lengths, and ran a blistering time in the process.
🔹 Miss Aria ($6.00) hit the line nicely in the Group 2 Rubiton Stakes, but the drop back to 1100m raises some queries.
🔹 Samangu ($8.50) is still progressive and should appreciate returning to a tighter-turning track after being outsprinted at Flemington.
Final Thoughts
Pondalowie maps better second-up and should be ready to produce her career peak at this trip. Tonkin is a genuine threat if she lines up here, while Mrs Chrissie is capable of running a big race at odds.
Predicted Race Tempo: Average
Race 2. (12:45) Senet Gambling Law Experts (Bm84) 1100
🏆 Best to Back: Don’t Hope Do ($6.00)
Don’t Hope Do is a genuine talent with a serious engine under the hood. He resumed from a short break at Sandown over 1000m, working home well late after getting back in the run. He strips fitter second-up, and the step to 1100m is a big tick. If he’s within striking distance on the turn, expect him to launch late.
💰 Best Value: Beast Mode ($12.00)
Beast Mode is a short-course weapon who simply found the 955m at Moonee Valley too sharp last start. He was left chasing behind the on-pace dominant Unflinching, but he’s much better suited here over 1100m with a more positive ride. If he can position closer in the run, he’s more than capable of winning at a big price.
🎯 Race Insights
🔹 Chinqui ($5.00) was dominant last start, leading all the way and never giving anything else a look in. If he holds the front again, he’ll take plenty of catching.
🔹 Winnasedge ($9.00) had no luck first-up but produced elite closing splits in the Red Anchor Stakes last prep. If the tempo is strong, he’ll be launching late.
🔹 Legio Ten ($8.00) is a proven 1100m performer who should be ready to fire second-up.
Final Thoughts
Don’t Hope Do has a serious motor and will love the step up to 1100m second-up. Chinqui will try to run them into the ground, while Beast Mode represents great value if he can find a forward position.
Predicted Race Tempo: Above Average
Race 3. (13:20) Autumn Classic 1800m
🏆 Best to Back: Emphasize ($2.70)
Emphasize is a progressive staying type who has put together back-to-back wins, including a strong effort against older horses last start. He showed a sharp turn of foot and was dominant in the run home. Back against his own age and with Craig Williams sticking, he looks the horse to beat once again.
💰 Best Value: Imperialist ($9.50)
Imperialist is a sneaky chance at a price. He was scratched from a weaker midweek race to run here, suggesting the stable has confidence. He closed off strongly last start despite lacking the instant acceleration to win, but stepping up to 1800m should suit him perfectly. If he gets a more genuine tempo, he could cause an upset.
🎯 Race Insights
🔹 Entrusting ($4.60) is a consistent galloper, winning two of his last three. He stormed home last start at Sandown and looks set to figure prominently again.
🔹 Scary ($6.00) is the class runner, having finished second in the Victoria Derby last prep. He wasn’t suited first-up over 1400m but should be much stronger now back out to 1800m.
🔹 Shanwah ($5.50) is chasing a hat-trick and could get a soft lead in a race lacking genuine speed.
Final Thoughts
Emphasize is the one to beat if he handles the race shape, while Imperialist offers strong each-way value stepping up in trip. Entrusting is genuine, and Scary has the class factor but might need further.
Predicted Race Tempo: Slow
Race 4. (13:55) Zeditave Stakes 1200m
🏆 Best to Back: Lofty Arch ($3.70)
Lofty Arch is a serious talent and resumes after a dominant Gothic Stakes win at this track. The stable has Newmarket Handicap aspirations, which suggests they rate him well above this grade. He’s trialled up nicely and is expected to race forward, making his own luck. If he’s anywhere near his peak, he should be winning.
💰 Best Value: Tropicus ($3.60)
Tropicus is group-class and resumes after tackling elite company in the Golden Rose and Caulfield Guineas last prep. His first-up run in the Manfred Stakes was strong, closing late behind Royal Insignia after racing keenly early. The blinkers go on, and if he settles better, he’s a massive chance at an each-way price.
🎯 Race Insights
🔹 Polyglot ($5.00) has been rock-solid this prep, winning first-up before running a huge race at Rosehill in a strong form race. He’s fit and ready to peak third-up.
🔹 Sergeant Major ($10.00) was unlucky first-up last prep in a high-rating race. If he gets a fair run, he’ll be finishing hard late.
🔹 Shadhavar ($9.00) comes through strong form races and has upside with a light weight.
Final Thoughts
Lofty Arch has the most upside and is well-placed to resume a winner. Tropicus drops in grade and adds blinkers, making him a strong value play. Polyglot maps well and should be right in the finish.
Predicted Race Tempo: Average
Race 5. (14:30) Angus Armanasco Stakes 1400m
🏆 Best to Back: Too Darn Lizzie ($3.10)
Too Darn Lizzie looks ready to fire fresh for Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott. Her Sydney trials have been sharp, and the fact she resumes over 1400m signals intent from the stable. She should find the front and dictate terms on a dry track, which is exactly where she does her best work. If she gets control early, she’ll be hard to run down.
💰 Best Value: Jenni The Fox ($15.00)
Jenni The Fox is dangerous back to her own sex after being thrown into the deep end in the Autumn Stakes last start. She won her maiden in brilliant fashion before stepping up to Group 2 level, where she wasn’t disgraced. Now back to a much more suitable race, she’s a genuine knockout chance at big odds.
🎯 Race Insights
🔹 Treasurethe Moment ($3.20) is the class of the field, having won the VRC Oaks in dominant style last spring. She’s the most talented filly here, but 1400m might be too sharp first-up.
🔹 Perfect Picture ($8.00) has upside, winning well on debut before running a strong second to a smart one last start.
🔹 Benagil ($10.00) had zero luck last prep but showed enough ability to be a factor if things go right.
Final Thoughts
Too Darn Lizzie will roll forward and take plenty of catching, while Treasurethe Moment has the class but might need further. Jenni The Fox is the best roughie, and Perfect Picture has upside at the trip.
Predicted Race Tempo: Below Average
Race 6. (15:05) Mannerism Stakes 1400m
🏆 Best to Back: Semana ($3.90)
Semana looks perfectly placed dropping back from the Group 1 CF Orr Stakes into this mares’ race. She was given a quiet ride from a wide gate last start but closed off strongly, making good late ground behind elite competition. With a more positive ride from a low draw, she gets her chance to win third-up at her ideal trip.
💰 Best Value: Coeur Volante ($5.50)
Coeur Volante never looked a winning hope first-up in the Bellmaine Stakes, but her final 100m was encouraging. A tick-over jumpout since suggests she’s ready to produce a sharper effort second-up, and if she can settle closer in the run, she’s a big danger at good odds.
🎯 Race Insights
🔹 Grinzinger Belle ($6.00) resumes and maps to get control up front. She’s won her last two first-up runs over 1400m and will take plenty of catching.
🔹 So Glamorous ($5.00) ran ahead of Coeur Volante first-up and is suited up in trip. She had zero luck last prep and could be a big improver.
🔹 Quintessa ($8.00) and Eternal Flame ($9.00) both needed their first-up runs and can take a step forward here.
Final Thoughts
Semana brings genuine Group 1 form and should be hard to beat with a closer position in running. Coeur Volante is the improver second-up, while Grinzinger Belle will be tough to run down if left alone in front.
Predicted Race Tempo: Below Average
Race 7. (15:40) Futurity Stakes 1400m
🏆 Best to Back: Mr Brightside ($2.05)
Mr Brightside is clearly the one to beat here. He was superb first-up in the CF Orr Stakes, given a perfect ride by Craig Williams, looming to win before Another Wil proved too sharp late. He should strip fitter, has an outstanding second-up record, and if he can find a spot outside the lead, he’ll be in complete control.
💰 Best Value: Tom Kitten ($10.00)
Tom Kitten is high-class and goes well fresh. He was enormous in the Golden Eagle last start, closing strongly into third, and his trial work has been excellent leading into this. He’s better suited over further, but if they overdo it up front, he’ll be the one launching late at a price.
🎯 Race Insights
🔹 I Wish I Win ($4.60) has the talent to match Mr Brightside, but he’s coming off a long break and might need the run. If he’s anywhere near his best, he’ll be charging late.
🔹 Pericles ($9.00) maps to get a soft run and is capable fresh. If the race shape suits, he’s one to include in exotics.
🔹 Evaporate ($12.00) ran well fresh and looks to have come back in good order. He’s untested at this level but could fill a placing at odds.
Final Thoughts
Mr Brightside looks set to peak second-up and will prove hard to run down. I Wish I Win has the ability to win but might need this run, while Tom Kitten is a strong value play if the race sets up for a closer.
Predicted Race Tempo: Below Average
Race 8. (16:15) Blue Diamond Stakes 1200m
🏆 Best to Back: Field Of Play ($5.00)
Field Of Play ticks all the right boxes after his impressive Prelude win two weeks ago. He showed good tactical speed, settled just off the leaders, and let down strongly when asked. Now fitter and up to 1200m, he gets a dream run from barrier five and should be right in the finish again.
💰 Best Value: Cherish Me ($7.00)
Cherish Me looks an exciting filly for the Maher camp, having blitzed her rivals on debut at Geelong. She gave a smart one in Cavalry Girl a start and a beating, and the form out of that race has held up well. While she’s been kept fresh, her jumpout was strong, and she should be charging home late off a genuine tempo.
🎯 Race Insights
🔹 The Playwright ($13.00) will roll forward and set the tempo after leading all the way in the Widden Stakes. He’s tough and tenacious, and back to set weights, he’ll take plenty of catching.
🔹 My Gladiola ($7.00) had excuses in the Prelude but was brilliant on debut, showing serious acceleration. If she gets the right run, she can bounce back.
🔹 Tempted ($10.00) was flying home in the Widden Stakes and gets to 1200m now, which should suit. She’s a danger late if the leaders overdo it.
Final Thoughts
Field Of Play has the perfect map and proven form, making him the top selection. Cherish Me has untapped upside and is a strong each-way chance, while The Playwright will give a huge sight up front.
Predicted Race Tempo: Strong
Race 9. (16:55) Oakleigh Plate 1100m
🏆 Best to Back: Sghirripa ($12.00)
Sghirripa has been set for this race after a strong trial and brings Oakleigh Plate redemption on his mind. He was huge last year in this race, running against the track pattern, and while he didn’t progress as expected, his fresh record is strong, and he gets in here with a lightweight at 52.5kg. If he finds clear running late, he’s a big chance at double figures.
💰 Best Value: Golden Boom ($23.00)
Golden Boom is a pure speedster who hasn’t raced since his Goldmarket win, where he led and fought hard to hold them off. While this is tougher, he has tactical speed to land in the right spot, and the Gollan stable doesn’t travel south without confidence. At big odds, he could be the knockout chance if he gets a soft lead.
Race Insights
🔹 I Am Me ($11.00) was scratched from the Lightning Stakes last week to target this. She has elite fresh form, and her win over Bella Nipotina last prep suggests she’s more than capable at this level.
🔹 She’s Bulletproof ($6.00) was dominant in the Bellmaine Stakes, but now faces open class Group 1 opposition. She gets in light at 52kg and is progressive, but this is a big step up.
🔹 Jimmystar ($9.00) has a monster finish and is 4 from 5 first-up. The wide draw suits him, as he can find cover and charge late.
Final Thoughts
Sghirripa is primed for this and can run a huge race fresh at big odds. I Am Me is the proven Group 1 mare and has to be respected, while Golden Boom offers a sneaky each-way play at a price.
Predicted Race Tempo: Fast
Race 10. (17:35) Victoria Gold Cup 2000m
🏆 Best to Back: Deny Knowledge ($4.80)
Deny Knowledge is the class factor in this race, returning after a Group 1-winning campaign. She was superb fresh last prep, running a huge race in the Underwood Stakes, before going on to claim the Might And Power over Mr Brightside. 2000m first-up suggests intent, and she’s drawn to land on speed and control the race. If she’s anywhere near her best, she’ll take plenty of catching.
💰 Best Value: Touristic ($11.00)
Touristic was hammered in betting last start but ended up too far back off a slow tempo, making it impossible to get into the race. He’s been kept fresh and now gets blinkers back on, which suggests the stable is looking for sharp improvement. Drawn better here, if he can settle a few pairs closer, he’s a serious chance at double figures.
🎯 Race Insights
🔹 Shaiyhar ($4.00) is a rock-solid stayer and in top race fitness after some strong recent performances. He’s seven runs deep into his prep, and 2000m suits perfectly.
🔹 Smokin’ Romans ($6.50) is first-up, but he’s a consistent type who maps well and should race handy from the inside draw.
🔹 Dashing Duchess ($9.00) was a huge eye-catcher first-up and should appreciate the step up in trip.
Final Thoughts
Deny Knowledge is the class horse and will be hard to beat if she’s ready first-up. Touristic was backed last start and can improve sharply, while Shaiyhar is race-fit and will be in the finish.
Predicted Race Tempo: Above Average
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