The focus this week is on the closing stages at Randwick and Caulfield, with the last four races from each meeting under the microscope. These aren’t always the easiest races to line up, but they often present the best chances to find value. We’ve zeroed in on runners who map well, bring solid recent form, and look ready to strike at the right time.
Let’s go again.
🏇 Caulfield R7 W.J. Adams Stakes (1000m)
📝 Race Overview:
A sharp 1000m dash at Caulfield where early speed, track position, and timing the move are everything. These races are often over in a flash, and with a few natural leaders engaged, this sets up as a genuine high-pressure sprint. Horses that can ping the lids, hold their spot, and still find something late usually come out on top, while those caught flat-footed early can struggle to get into the contest. With Caulfield’s straight favouring momentum runners, tactical speed and fitness are key.
🔥 Best to Back Tip: BEAST MODE
💰 Odds: ~$ 3.2
⚡ “Looks the right horse for this setup. He’s a natural speedster who has been racing consistently well at the trip and clearly enjoys Caulfield. Last start he was caught late after rolling along in front under a big weight, but that run stacks up well here. From a good gate he should be able to take control early, dictate the tempo, and make the rest chase. If he gets any breathing room mid-race, he’s going to take plenty of catching over this short course.”
💎 Best Value Bet: CANNONBALL
💰 Odds: ~$ 23
💥 “Not the obvious one on form, but there’s enough here to warrant a look at the price. He’s been freshened up, has shown improvement this prep, and draws to settle midfield with cover. If the leaders overdo it early, he’s the type who can sneak into the race late and run past a few tired legs. Hard to see him winning on pure ratings, but at big odds he’s not the worst to include for multiples or a small each-way play.”
🏇 Caulfield R8 Quayclean Manfred Stakes (1200m)
📝 Race Overview:
The Manfred Stakes always brings together a sharp mix of early-season three-year-olds, many still on the way up and learning their craft. With a couple of natural speed influences engaged, this shapes as a genuinely run 1200m where positioning and balance late will matter. Horses resuming or second-up with upside often perform well here, especially those capable of settling back and finishing strongly rather than getting caught up in the early burn.
🔥 Best to Back Tip: SALTY PEARL
💰 Odds: ~$ 5.5
⚡ “Hard not to like her setup here. She’s coming back from a break but showed last prep that she can absorb pressure and still find the line, charging through the field for a close-up third fresh. From a soft draw she can settle back, stay out of trouble, and build into her work late. If the race is run at a solid clip — which looks likely — she’s the one you want launching over the top.”
💎 Best Value Bet: CUSTOM
💰 Odds: ~$ 6
💥 “Not without claims at all. She’s a natural fresh performer, having won impressively first-up last campaign, and her second-up run was full of merit — settling back and closing off well without ever being fully extended. She’ll likely adopt a similar pattern here, and if the leaders overdo it early, she’s more than capable of chiming in late. Not the headline runner, but she’s honest and well worth something each-way.”
🏇 Caulfield R9 Evergreen Turf John Dillon Stakes (1400m)
📝 Race Overview:
A sharp 1400m where race shape matters. With a few capable of rolling forward, this should be run at a genuine tempo, giving runners on-speed every chance but also allowing something just off the speed to finish over the top if the pressure goes on early.
🔥 Best to Back Tip: ZOU SENSATION
💰 Odds: ~$ 3.1
⚡ “Hard to knock. He’s proven at the track, handles the trip, and his recent form stacks up nicely for this level. Maps to land right on the speed, controls his own destiny, and has shown he can kick strongly when asked. Looks the one they all need to run down.”
💎 Value Watch: AZTEC RULER
💰 Odds: ~$ 6
💥 “Not without a hope at the price. He’s been hitting the line without a lot of luck recently and gets conditions to suit again. If the tempo’s solid and gaps open at the right time, he can be in the finish.”
🏇Caulfield R10 Sportsbet More Places BM78 (1600m)
📝 Race Overview:
A competitive mile to close the card where tempo and timing will matter. There looks enough pace up front to give runners their chance, and this sets up nicely for something that can settle midfield and finish off without doing too much work early.
🔥 Best to Back Tip: AHHA AHHA
💰 Odds: ~$ 4.8
⚡ “Gets her chance here. She’s been finding the line well in similar races, just missed last start after dropping back in trip, and the return to 1600m looks ideal. Drawn to get a comfortable run and if she sees clear air at the right time, she’s right in this.”
💎 Value Watch: BLACK STORM
💰 Odds: ~$ 23
💥 “Big price but not without hope. Has been freshened up and showed in the past he can lead and keep going when things go his way. Risky, but worth keeping safe if the track plays kindly to on-pace runners.”
🏇 Randwick R7 Irresistible Pools And Spas (BM88)(1600m)
📝 Race Overview:
A solid mid-grade mile with a few different winning chances. There looks to be enough pressure up front to ensure this is genuinely run, which should give runners settling midfield or just worse their chance to finish over the top. Race shape and timing will be key late.
🔥 Best to Back Tip: ROLLING MAGIC
💰 Odds: ~$ 3.4
⚡ “Hard to knock his consistency. He’s racing in good order, proven at the mile, and maps to get a nice run without having to do it the hard way. Comes through strong form, and looks set up to get his chance if the gaps come.”
💎 Best Value Bet: DANCES WITH HOOVES
💰 Odds: ~$ 14
💥 “Better than the market suggests. Has been holding form, stays the mile, and should benefit if the tempo is genuine. Can be saved for one run and hit the line late with no weight on her back. Worth an each-way ticket at the odds.”
🏇 Randwick R8 Schweppes Carrington Stakes (1400m )
📝 Race Overview:
A competitive sprint where timing and a clean run will matter more than raw brilliance. There’s a bit of speed engaged, but this doesn’t look like a breakneck tempo, which should give runners stalking the pace their chance to pounce late. With a few question marks around consistency in this field, it shapes as a race where current form and setup carry extra weight.
🔥 Best Bet: FIRE STAR
💰 Odds: ~$ 7
A capable on-his-day runner who has quietly put together a solid overall record. While he’s had a few recent chances without winning, he’s been racing in stronger company and now finds a setup that suits after a great mid-prep trial. The 1400m looks ideal, he maps to get a nice run just off the speed, and if he finds a bit of rhythm mid-race, he’s well placed to strike.
💎 Best Value: STEP ASIDE
💰 Odds: ~$ 14
Worth keeping safe at the odds, especially with Zac Lloyd taking the ride. He was strong winning second-up and was good last start. Gets in light, maps to settle midfield with cover, and if the gaps appear at the right time, he can easily run into the finish.
🏇 Randwick R9 Spelling At Coolmore Mt White (BM78) (1200m)
📝 Race Overview:
A sharp 1200m where positioning and race shape will be crucial. There looks to be enough speed engaged to ensure this is run honestly, but not so much that leaders completely fall apart. With a mix of mares and open-company performers dropping back into more suitable conditions, this shapes as a race where recent form, class relief, and the right run in transit will matter more than pure early speed.
🔥 Best Bet: CANDLEWICK
💰 Odds: ~$6.5
Candlewick looks very well placed here. She returned nicely fresh over shorter against the males and found the line well, suggesting she’s come back in good order. The rise to 1200m is a clear positive, she gets back into mares’ grade, and maps to settle in a handy stalking position. With natural improvement second-up and a more favourable setup overall, she looks the runner most likely to take control late and prove hard to hold out.
💎 Best Value: DIDDLE DUMPLING
💰 Odds: ~$ 12
Diddle Dumpling appeals as the value runner, particularly with Nash Rawiller taking the ride. She’s been freshened, has shown she can roll forward, and has previously handled similar conditions well. If Nash is able to put her in a positive spot early and apply pressure at the right time, she can easily outperform her price and give the fieldsomething to something to chase in the straight.
🏇 Randwick R10 TAB (BM78)(1400m)
📝 Race Overview:
There looks to be enough pace on paper to ensure this is run honestly, which should give on-speed runners every chance while still allowing something stalking the lead to finish over the top. A few in here have been mixing their form, so this shapes as a race where race position and confidence going into the run matter just as much as raw ability.
🔥 Best Bet: PUNTIN
💰 Odds: ~$ 5.5
Puntin profiles as the horse most likely to control this. He maps to roll forward and either lead or sit right on the speed, which is a big advantage in a race like this. While his first-up run didn’t quite deliver the finish some expected, he wasn’t disgraced and now strips fitter. Back at a suitable trip, with a likely soft run up front, he looks well placed to give a strong kick and prove hard to run down if left alone mid-race.
💎 Best Value: MISS HADES
💰 Odds: ~$ 10
Worth a look at the odds. She’s shown she can roll along on pace. Her Gosford run can be forgiven given the step up in class. Back into a BM78, she maps to be prominent again and could bounce back sharply. If she finds her rhythm early and isn’t pressured too hard, she’s capable of sticking on much longer than the market suggests.
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