The Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning (1000m) takes center stage at Flemington this Saturday, headlining a stacked 10-race program, read on for our professional insights and value bets
After a scorching week, Melbourne’s weather is set to cool down, with a top of 18 degrees and showers expected throughout the day.
Punters can anticipate a Soft 5 track, with the rail in the true position. The first race is scheduled to jump at 12:15pm AEDT, setting the scene for a high-stakes day of racing action.
3 YEAR OLDS: A CHANGING OF THE GUARD?
The time-honoured Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning (1000m) headlines a blockbuster 10-race program at Flemington this Saturday, with $750,000 in prize money up for grabs.
A high-quality field of 12, including five Group 1 winners, will charge down the famous Flemington straight in what promises to be a thrilling edition of this prestigious sprint.
Early Black Caviar Lightning betting suggests a potential changing of the guard, with three superstar three-year-olds dominating the market. However, a handful of seasoned older sprinters are primed to spoil the party in Flemington’s first Group 1 of 2025, setting the stage for a high-stakes battle between youth and experience.
Race 1 – 12:15PM TAB We’re On Tips (2000m)
🏆 Best to Back: King’s Valley ($5.50)
King’s Valley comes into this in top form after a strong win at Sandown three weeks ago. He had a dream run in transit before sprinting clear for a dominant victory. With confidence high and a winnable race ahead, he looks a solid bet at current odds, given the main market elects might be a touch short.
💰Best Value: Le Zebra ($7.00)
Le Zebra has been knocking on the door and should appreciate the rise to 2000m. He ran on well last start over 1600m, finishing third in a competitive race, and this distance should suit him perfectly. Given his consistency, he presents a good value play at each-way odds.
Race Insights
- Revelare is the horse to beat, having won three straight and breaking the track record last start. However, with likely short odds, it’s not an attractive betting prospect.
- Miss Tarzy and Shiny New Deel have each-way claims based on their recent form.
- Fagin ($23) is an interesting long shot, coming off a strong Moonee Valley win over 2040m.
Final Thoughts
Revelare is the clear class runner, but backing him at unders isn’t ideal. King’s Valley offers the strongest form at a backable price, while Le Zebra is well-suited up in distance and provides solid value.
Race 2 – 12:45PM TAB Talindert Stakes Tips (1100m)
🏆 Best to Back: Sword Of Legacy ($3.10)
This filly looks to have plenty of upside. She was strong late in the Chairmans Stakes last start, just missing behind Inkaruna, and has shown she can handle the straight at Flemington. With minimal pace in the race, she maps well and looks primed to break through.
💰Best Value: Tentyris ($15.00)
Tentyris made his debut in the Chairmans Stakes but was caught inside, which wasn’t the best place to be. He had shown excellent jump-out form before that race, so he could easily improve second-up with the added experience. At $15, he represents solid each-way value.
Race Insights
- Shining Smile is the class horse and chasing three straight wins but might be under the odds given question marks over the depth of his last start win.
- Blethyn has trialed impressively and could be the best of the unraced brigade.
- Hiatus is an unknown quantity but looked professional when winning on debut.
Final Thoughts
With Shining Smile likely to be well found in the market, Sword of Legacy offers the strongest win bet at a backable price, while Tentyris is the value play with scope for big improvement second-up.
Race 3 – 1:20PM Frances Tressady Stakes Tips (1400m)
🏆 Best to Back: Fancify ($3.50)
Fancify is the standout selection based on both form and track record. She was strong when resuming in the Bellmaine Stakes over 1200m, leading throughout before condition gave way late. Now second-up, stepping to 1400m at Flemington—a track where she excels—she looks the horse to beat with front-running control.
💰 Best Value: Wrote To Arataki ($9.00)
Wrote To Arataki ran well fresh in the Bellmaine, sticking on strongly despite being on speed in a race that suited those running on. With a more patient ride and stepping up to 1400m, she looks well placed to be in the finish at an each-way price.
🎯 Race Insights
- Flying Fizz has strong claims given her record on dry ground and a favourable draw.
- Miraval Rose is a threat if she finds her best, but her last run was below expectations.
- Bizot and Plenty of Ammo could be running on late, but both need the right tempo to feature.
Final Thoughts
With a race shape that suits leaders, Fancify should take catching, while Wrote To Arataki is a solid each-way play at $9, given her ability to be on speed and fight on.
Race 4 – 1:55PM The All-Star Mile Owner Ambassador Trophy Tips (1600m)
🏆 Best to Back: Smokin’ Princess ($8.00)
Smokin’ Princess is flying at the moment, winning three of her last four starts. She produced a powerful finish to win at Sandown last start, and the step back to Flemington suits. While drawn wide, she’s adaptable and in strong enough form to handle it. At $8, she presents as the most reliable bet at a backable price.
💰 Best Value: Umgawa ($15.00)
Umgawa was desperately unlucky last start at Sandown, getting held up badly before charging home late. With clear running this time, he looks set to peak at his home track. At $15, he’s a great each-way option in an open race.
🎯 Race Insights
- Verdad is a consistent performer but has become a costly horse for punters, placing in six straight starts without winning.
- Ziryab is improving and has won his last two but steps up in grade here.
- Arqana has strong closing sectionals and could be a danger if the race is run to suit.
- Watadeel ($23.00) is a genuine longshot that will appreciate stepping up to 1600m.
Final Thoughts
Smokin’ Princess is the in-form runner and offers the best win betting option at $8. Umgawa has a great each-way chance at $15, given how unlucky he was last start. This is an open race, but both selections should be in the finish.
Race 5 – 2:30PM The Flemington Long Lunch Tips (1200m)
🏆 Best to Back: Wiggum ($6.00)
Wiggum has been knocking on the door with strong performances down the Flemington straight. He’s placed in his last two runs here and keeps finding the line well. With a good setup in this race and a slight drop in weight, he finally gets his chance to break through.
💰 Best Value: Veloce Carro ($5.50)
Veloce Carro was solid first-up at Flemington and is expected to improve off that effort. He has the ability to be in the finish and looks a value play, especially given his upside second-up. If he sharpens up from the fresh run, he can surprise the market.
🎯 Race Insights
- Shesallshenanigans is in great form and has a strong record at Flemington but may have to work early from a wide draw.
- Material Dreams has been closing off strongly in her runs and could be the best late closer in the race.
- Bossy Nic struggled last start but has previous form that suggests she can be competitive at this level.
- He’s Our Bonneval resumes and has strong first-up form, so he can’t be dismissed.
Final Thoughts
Wiggum deserves to win with how well he’s been racing, and this looks the right race for him. Veloce Carro is the best value option given his improvement factor. Both should be right in the finish.
Race 6 – 3:05PM The Elms Handicap Tips (1400m)
🏆 Best to Back: Chorlton Lane ($4.20)
Chorlton Lane has been knocking on the door with four straight runs where he’s drawn the inside gate and gone down narrowly each time. He’s now back to 1400m at Flemington, which should be much more suitable. With a better race shape and luck, this looks like the right race for him to break through.
💰Best Value: Aztec Ruler ($7.50)
Aztec Ruler has been solid in Melbourne since arriving from Perth. He ran well in the G3 Standish Handicap at his first run here and followed it up with an even effort in the Barton Stakes. He meets Chorlton Lane 1kg better this time and could turn the tables at a value price.
🎯 Race Insights
- Rise At Dawn is unbeaten first-up and in winning form but might find this tougher with Buffalo River ensuring a strong tempo.
- Just Folk was good fresh and rates well, but he tends to find one better in these races.
- Poison Chalice will improve getting back to 1400m and is one to keep safe.
- Communist ($14.00) is a Group 1 winner resuming and could surprise at odds.
Final Thoughts
Chorlton Lane is overdue and gets his chance in a suitable race, while Aztec Ruler offers solid each-way value with improvement expected. Both should be right in the finish.
Race 7 – 3:40PM CS Hayes Stakes Tips (1400m)
🏆 Best to Back: Henlein ($9.00)
Henlein resumes after a strong Spring Champion Stakes campaign, where he ran second behind El Castello, a horse that was in peak form. He’s clearly got Group-class talent, and while he might be better suited over further, his jumpouts have been sharp, suggesting he’ll be competitive fresh over 1400m. If the pace is solid, he will be storming home late.
💰 Best Value: Goldrush Guru ($13.00)
Goldrush Guru had no luck first-up against older horses when trapped wide in the Durbridge Stakes. The step up to 1400m suits, and back against his own age group, he looks primed for a strong showing. Getting Jamie Kah back aboard is a big plus, and at $13, he represents solid value.
🎯 Race Insights
- Feroce has the strongest overall form lines but may be under the odds given the depth in this race.
- Royal Insignia is on an upward trajectory, coming off a G3 Manfred Stakes win and should handle the rise in trip.
- Sepals ($14.00) is an emerging runner chasing a hat-trick and maps well with Blake Shinn aboard.
- Wonder Boy ($15.00) is another at a price that could surprise, needing to prove himself at this level.
Final Thoughts
Henlein is a class runner at an attractive price, and Goldrush Guru looks set to improve second-up. Both should be in the finish, and this is a race where playing multiple runners could be a smart approach.
Race 8 – 4:15PM Black Caviar Lightning Tips (1000m)
🏆 Best to Back: Growing Empire ($3.80)
Growing Empire had an outstanding Spring campaign, running against the best sprinters in the country. While he was no match for Switzerland in the Coolmore Stud Stakes, that came at the tail end of a tough prep. He has been ridden quietly in trials leading into this, which suggests a change of tactics to let him settle and launch late. If he’s ridden cold, he could explode and turn the tables on Switzerland over the 1000m trip.
💰 Best Value: I Am Me ($8.00)
I Am Me loves the short-course sprinting and has a 4/6 record first-up, including a Group 2 win over Bella Nipotina fresh last campaign. The 1000m suits her more than some of the fitter 1200m types in this race, and she has drawn the right part of the track to be in the finish. At $8, she is a value runner who can catch some of the classier types off guard fresh.
🎯 Race Insights
- Switzerland is the deserved favorite and a serious racehorse, but his best work has come over 1200m. At short odds, he may be vulnerable first-up over 1000m.
- Traffic Warden ($12.00) is a lightly raced talent who failed in the Coolmore but had excuses. He’s better than that, and if the race is run to suit, he could surprise.
- Mazu ($18.00) is a Group 1 sprinter who will need to be at his absolute best first-up, but he has a chance to run a place at big odds.
Final Thoughts
Switzerland is the horse to beat, but he’s under the right odds. Growing Empire has had a better lead-up and can turn the tables, while I Am Me is a great value play at each-way odds. Expect the 3YOs to dominate this Group 1 sprint.
Race 9 – 4:55PM Desirable Stakes Tips (1400m)
🏆 Best to Back: Sneaky Sunrise ($6.00)
Sneaky Sunrise is a lightly raced filly with upside, resuming after a 32-week spell. Her jumpout form has been strong, and she showed plenty of talent as a 2YO. With three trials under her belt, she should be fit and ready to fire first-up. Given her proven ability at this course, she’s a solid play in an open race.
💰 Best Value: Another Prophet ($7.50)
Another Prophet comes out of a strong Thousand Guineas win and ran well first-up in the Manfred Stakes over 1200m. Now fitter and stepping up to 1400m, she looks well placed back against her own sex. Barrier 4 is ideal, and if she can settle a little closer, she’ll be hitting the line hard.
🎯 Race Insights
- Captured By Love brings Group 1 New Zealand form, and while she didn’t fire last start, she’s rarely out of the money.
- Cilacap ($8.50) is a filly on the rise, coming off an impressive Caulfield Heath win, and she should be storming home late.
- Too Darn Discreet ($11.00) is a stayer resuming but trialed well and could be a sneaky place chance if they overdo it up front.
Final Thoughts
Sneaky Sunrise has been well prepared for this and is a great bet at $6, while Another Prophet is over the odds at $7.50 and should be finishing strongly. Expect a competitive finish, but these two look the best betting options.
Race 10 – 5:35PM Stud & Stable Staff Leadership Award Tips (1400m)
🏆 Best to Back: Is It Me ($6.00)
Is It Me returned to winning form last start over this track and distance, proving he excels at Flemington. While he rises in weight, this is no tougher, and he maps well to get another ideal run in transit. With good second-up form and a race shape that suits, he looks a strong bet at $6.
💰Best Value: It’s Business Time ($23.00)
It’s Business Time was flat first-up but had excuses, carrying 60kg in a sit-and-sprint race against a strong field. She jumped out impressively before resuming, and drops 1.5kg here, which could see her bounce back sharply at massive odds. With a better tempo and fitness improvement, she can surprise.
🎯 Race Insights
- Sunshineinmypocket is a progressive type, having won 4 of 5, but the barrier (1) could be a negative if he’s buried back on the rail.
- Le Ferrari ($17.00) will be on speed and fighting hard, making him a solid place chance.
- El Rocko ($11.00) was solid first-up over 1200m and is much better suited at this 1400m trip.
Final Thoughts
Is It Me is the most reliable bet, having already proven himself at this track and trip. However, at $23, It’s Business Time is a huge value play, with scope to improve sharply second-up. A small saver on Sunshineinmypocket might also be wise, given his upside.
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