Last week we found 2 winners from 8 races at Randwick and Flemington.
- TEMPTED (Odds: ~$1.60)
- COSMIC CRUSADER (Odds: ~$7)
The Spring Racing Carnival shifts up a gear this Saturday with one of the most anticipated days on the calendar — Caulfield Guineas Day. Three Group 1 races headline the Caulfield card, headlined by the Group 1 Sportsbet Caulfield Guineas for the three-year-olds, alongside the Group 1 Sportsbet Might And Power and the Group 1 Hyland Race Colours Toorak Handicap.
Over at Rosehill, the Sydney card carries its own quality with the Group 2 Toyota Forklifts Hill Stakes over 1900 metres, the Group 3 Alan Brown Stakes and the Group 3 The Nivison for the mares, plus a competitive Benchmark 78 sprint to close proceedings.
It’s a day loaded with feature racing across both cities. Rosehill sits on a Good 4 surface, while Caulfield is racing on a Soft 6 with light rain about — conditions that will test adaptability and favour those proven on rain-affected ground.
We’ve done the form across all eight races and narrowed it down to our best bets and value plays. Let’s get stuck into it.
🏇 Rosehill R7 1900m – Group 2 Toyota Forklifts Hill Stakes
📝 Race Overview: A weight-for-age affair over 1900 metres with a compact but quality field of nine. The market has a clear opinion with Lindermann holding sway at the top, though a few handy types resume and will be looking to make early-season statements.
🔥 Best Bet: LINDERMANN 💰 Odds: ~$1.95 ⚡ The clear class horse of this field with over $5.3 million in career prizemoney from nine wins and nine placings across 42 starts. Nash Rawiller takes the ride for Chris Waller, and a dominant second-up win this campaign showed what he’s capable of when things click. Hard to go past in a race that suits his profile.
💎 Best Value: KING PEDRO 💰 Odds: ~$14 💥 Resumes off back-to-back wins at the end of his last preparation, and Kerrin McEvoy is an astute booking for John O’Shea. A career record of four wins and six placings from just 16 starts suggests there’s talent here, and at double-figure odds each way he’s worth including.
🏇 Rosehill R8 1400m – Group 3 Alan Brown Stakes
📝 Race Overview: A strong open-quality 1400 metres that has attracted a quality field of 17 after scratchings. Several proven performers clash, and the race should be run at a genuine clip which will suit those settling off the speed.
🔥 Best Bet: SEPALS 💰 Odds: ~$5.25 ⚡ The specialist — all five career wins have come at 1400 metres, and he placed second last start to confirm he’s racing in top order. Jamie Mott rides for Cliff Brown, and with $3.5 million in prizemoney to his name, the class is undeniable at his pet distance.
💎 Best Value: GENERAL SALUTE 💰 Odds: ~$8.50 💥 Won first-up last start at Randwick — always a good sign from the Gerald Ryan and Sterling Alexiou yard. Tim Clark retains the ride, and with five wins and nine placings from 20 career starts, he’s proven he belongs in this grade. Good value at the price.
🏇 Rosehill R9 1200m – Group 3 The Nivison
📝 Race Overview: A mares’ sprint over 1200 metres with a field of 14 after scratchings. The race shapes up as genuinely competitive with the top three in the market separated by less than a dollar, and a fast early speed should set it up for those who can finish strongly.
🔥 Best Bet: SHE’S AN ARTIST 💰 Odds: ~$5 ⚡ Has placed second and third in her last two starts at metropolitan level, showing she’s racing right at her peak. Ciaron Maher and Regan Bayliss combine, and with three wins and three placings from just 10 career starts, the consistency is there for a mare ready to break through.
💎 Best Value: ANNIE’S ROSE 💰 Odds: ~$14 💥 Won last start at Rosehill and boasts six wins from 18 career starts for a 33% strike rate. Kristen Buchanan has this mare in terrific order with two wins from three starts this campaign, and at $14 the market may be underrating a proven Rosehill performer.
🏇 Rosehill R10 1100m – Chandon Handicap (Bm78)
📝 Race Overview: A competitive short-course handicap to close the Rosehill card, with the field trimmed to 12 after scratchings. Fierce dominates the market but must overcome some capable types at the weights.
🔥 Best Bet: FIERCE 💰 Odds: ~$2.60 ⚡ A perfect three from three first-up record tells you everything about this Hawkes-trained sprinter. Placed second last start to confirm she’s holding her form this preparation, and Tyler Schiller stays on. With just six career starts for three wins and two seconds, the ceiling is clearly high.
💎 Best Value: ELLIPSIS 💰 Odds: ~$6.25 💥 Resumes with Tommy Berry in the saddle, which always commands attention. Won during her last preparation and has three wins and two placings from nine career starts for Bjorn Baker. At $6.25 each way, she shapes as the value play in a race that could set up for closers if the speed is on early.
🏇 Caulfield R7 2000m – Group 1 Sportsbet Might And Power
📝 Race Overview: A small but select field of six tackles the 2000 metres in this weight-for-age Group 1. The Soft 6 track adds a variable, but the market has spoken clearly with one runner dominating at extremely short odds.
🔥 Best Bet: SHEZA ALIBI 💰 Odds: ~$1.35 ⚡ The price is short but the form demands it — eight wins from just 12 career starts and a perfect record second-up with four wins from four attempts. Won last start to continue an extraordinary run, and the Peter Moody and Katherine Coleman stable have this mare humming. Luke Nolen rides with supreme confidence.
💎 Best Value: BIRDMAN 💰 Odds: ~$4.20 💥 Won last start first-up and brings a strong record at Caulfield with two wins from four starts and two wins from four attempts at 2000 metres. Career earnings of $2.41 million confirm the class, and at $4.20 he shapes as the clear danger if the favourite has any chinks in the armour.
🏇 Caulfield R8 1600m – Group 1 Sportsbet Caulfield Guineas
📝 Race Overview: The race of the day — the $3 million Caulfield Guineas for the three-year-olds over the mile. The three-year-old form this spring has been outstanding, and the market has a clear favourite but several lightly raced types with upside ready to announce themselves.
🔥 Best Bet: WARWOVEN 💰 Odds: ~$2.15 ⚡ Won his last two starts to announce himself as a genuine Guineas contender. Five wins from just eight career starts is a remarkable 62% strike rate, and the Bjorn Baker and Rachel King combination have been in outstanding form this spring. The one to beat.
💎 Best Value: TRON BOLT 💰 Odds: ~$8.50 💥 Rattled off three consecutive wins during his last preparation before a well-earned break, showing he has the class for a race like this. Chris Waller has paired him with Craig Williams for this assignment, and at $8.50 in a Caulfield Guineas, the talent from his previous prep could well surface on the big stage.
🏇 Caulfield R9 1600m – Group 1 Hyland Race Colours Toorak Handicap
📝 Race Overview: A wide-open handicap mile with 15 runners and no horse shorter than $6 in the market. The Toorak is always one of the most competitive Group 1s of the spring, and the Soft 6 surface will play a role in sorting out those who handle the conditions.
🔥 Best Bet: EVAPORATE 💰 Odds: ~$6.50 ⚡ Has a proven record over the mile with three wins from seven starts at 1600 metres, and career prizemoney north of $3.3 million confirms he belongs at the top level. Blake Shinn rides for the Hayes stable, and a win two starts back shows he’s not far away from producing his best in an open race like this.
💎 Best Value: CHANGING COLOURS 💰 Odds: ~$8.50 💥 Four consecutive wins heading into a Group 1 — that kind of momentum is hard to ignore. Lucy Yeomans has this mare flying with seven wins and seven placings from 20 career starts, and while the step up in grade is significant, the formline speaks for itself. Luke Cartwright stays on, and at $8.50 there’s genuine value if the winning streak continues.
🏇 Caulfield R10 1400m – Listed Nationwide Weekend Hussler Stakes
📝 Race Overview: A Listed race over 1400 metres to close out a superb Caulfield card. A large and competitive field of 17 runners, with several proven Caulfield performers looking to stamp their spring credentials.
🔥 Best Bet: HARRY’S YACHT 💰 Odds: ~$5.50 ⚡ The market favourite for good reason — a Caulfield specialist with three wins from six starts at the track. Career record of eight wins from 27 starts for the Corstens stable, and Ben Allen’s association with the horse adds further confidence. Should be running on strongly late.
💎 Best Value: REGAL ZEUS 💰 Odds: ~$9 💥 Won last start and boasts four wins from 10 starts at Caulfield — a genuine track specialist. A warrior with 12 career wins from 39 starts, and at $9 the market is offering a fair price for a proven Caulfield performer who thrives at this track. Daniel Stackhouse retains the ride.
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