Last week we found 4 winners from 8 races across Rosehill and The Valley @ Caulfield!
- LAZZURA (Odds: ~$1.95)
- WARWOVEN (Odds: ~$6.25)
- SKYHOOK (Odds: ~$1.50)
- CHANGING COLOURS (Odds: ~$3.70)
The spring carnival shifts into top gear this Saturday with a pair of Group 1 features headlining an outstanding day of metropolitan racing across two states. It doesn’t get much bigger than this in early October, and we’ve done the form to find our best plays across both cards.
At Randwick, we’ll be covering Races 7 through 10, headlined by the Group 1 Tab Epsom over the mile. The unbeaten Well Written chases history against a quality handicap field, while the Group 2 Metropolitan over 2400m and the Group 2 Premiere Stakes add serious depth to the afternoon.
Across at Flemington, our focus is again Races 7 through 10, featuring the Group 1 Tab Turnbull Stakes over 2000m where Sir Delius looks to cement his spring credentials. The Group 3 Bart Cummings offers a Melbourne Cup ballot exemption and the Group 2 Gilgai Stakes rounds out a quality sprint card.
With two Group 1s and a stack of black-type racing on offer, there’s value to be found if you know where to look. We’ve narrowed down our best bets and value plays — let’s get into it.
🏇 Randwick R7 2400m – Group 2 Asahi Super Dry Metropolitan
📝 Race Overview: A quality staying test over 2400m that will reward fitness and class. Several dual acceptors cloud the final field picture, but the race shapes as a genuine test of stamina with a soft track adding to the challenge. The low draw runners should get every chance.
🔥 Best Bet: AETHELWULF 💰 Odds: ~$2.25 ⚡ The star of this field with five wins from seven career starts and a stunning 71% win rate. His form string reads four wins in succession, including a comfortable victory over 2300m at Newcastle two weeks ago. Steps up markedly in class to Group 2 level, but the way he’s been winning suggests he’s well above that grade. Dual accepted with Flemington but the shorter price here indicates this is the likely target.
💎 Best Value: PINHOLE 💰 Odds: ~$11 💥 Comes in off a last-start win over 1900m at Rosehill just a week ago and looks ready to tackle the 2400m trip. The light weight of 53kg is a significant advantage in a staying handicap, and the addition of a bubble cheeker for the first time could sharpen him up. Four wins from fourteen starts and trained by Chris Waller — each-way value at double figures.
🏇 Randwick R8 1600m – Group 1 Tab Epsom
📝 Race Overview: The feature race of the day and one of the great mile handicaps of the spring. A capacity field of 19 runners ensures a genuine tempo, and the wide draw will be a factor for several of the fancied runners. The Soft 5 surface adds another layer to the puzzle.
🔥 Best Bet: WELL WRITTEN 💰 Odds: ~$3.50 ⚡ Simply remarkable — seven starts for seven wins and a perfect 100% strike rate. Won her most recent start over 1400m at Ellerslie in New Zealand four weeks ago and steps up to the mile for the first time, but everything about her record says she’ll handle it. Drawn beautifully in barrier 3 with Zac Lloyd aboard, and the ear muffs go on pre-race again. The best horse in the race on raw ability.
💎 Best Value: ATTICA 💰 Odds: ~$7.50 💥 A lightly raced four-year-old with a 70% place rate from ten career starts. Ran third over 1400m at Randwick four weeks ago and steps up to the mile, which looks the right move based on his racing pattern. Blinkers go on again and the 51.5kg is a featherweight in a Group 1 handicap. Consistent enough to be in the finish at a price.
🏇 Randwick R9 1200m – Group 2 Precise Air Premiere Stakes
📝 Race Overview: A weight-for-age sprint that pits the brilliant Tempted against a quality field of established sprinters. The 1200m trip on a soft track will test speed and stamina in equal measure, and this could be a race where class tells over conditions.
🔥 Best Bet: TEMPTED 💰 Odds: ~$1.60 ⚡ Short but deserving — eight wins from thirteen starts at a 62% strike rate, with a staggering 92% place rate. Won her last start over 1000m at Randwick four weeks ago and the step to 1200m holds no fears given her record. The dominant mare of her generation and the one they all have to beat.
💎 Best Value: HEADWALL 💰 Odds: ~$10 💥 A model of consistency with an 85% place rate from twenty career starts — seven wins, six seconds and four thirds. Was fifth over 1100m at Randwick last start but the step back to 1200m is ideal, and his record suggests he’ll be in the finish regardless of conditions. At double figures, he’s worth an each-way play in a race where second and third pay well.
🏇 Randwick R10 1200m – Tab One Pool Handicap (Bm94)
📝 Race Overview: A competitive benchmark sprint to close the Randwick card. A wide-open affair with a large field of 18 plus emergencies, and the sort of race where a good barrier and light weight can make all the difference. Expect a strong tempo with plenty of speed drawn inside.
🔥 Best Bet: THEBLADE 💰 Odds: ~$4.60 ⚡ Won his last start impressively over 1200m at Rosehill three weeks ago and has five wins from twelve starts at a 42% strike rate. The form string shows he’s come right this preparation, and the 55.5kg gives him a genuine weight advantage against some of the more exposed runners. Drawn in barrier 5, which should allow him to settle in a lovely position just off the speed.
💎 Best Value: NEPO BABY 💰 Odds: ~$10 💥 A lightly raced four-year-old mare with a 75% place rate from eight career starts — two wins and four placings. Was seventh over the shorter 1100m last start at Randwick, but the step to 1200m suits her racing pattern. At $10 in a wide-open handicap with that place strike, she’s a genuine each-way proposition.
🏇 Flemington R7 2520m – Group 3 The Lexus Bart Cummings
📝 Race Overview: The Melbourne Cup ballot-exempt staying feature that always attracts a strong field of staying types chasing the golden ticket. At 2520m on a Good 3, the race rewards proven stayers with tactical speed, and several runners here have one eye on the first Tuesday in November.
🔥 Best Bet: JENNIVAMOOSE 💰 Odds: ~$8 ⚡ A proven stayer who has placed in three of her last four starts, including a third over 2500m at Flemington just three weeks ago. Her career record of five wins and five thirds from eighteen starts shows she rarely runs a bad race, and the 54kg is a gift in a staying handicap. Maps to get a nice run from barrier 17 with cover, and her 61% place rate speaks for itself.
💎 Best Value: LITZDEEL 💰 Odds: ~$9.50 💥 Ran fifth over 2500m at this track three weeks ago and has the tongue tie coming off for the first time, which is an interesting gear change. Her form reads three wins and five seconds from eighteen starts for a 50% place rate, and she’s proven at the trip. At $9.50, she offers genuine each-way value in a race where the obvious favourite Aethelwulf is a dual acceptor and may not even start here.
🏇 Flemington R8 2000m – Group 1 Tab Turnbull Stakes
📝 Race Overview: The second Group 1 of the afternoon and a key lead-up to the Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup. A select field of fifteen, and the 2000m at Flemington is a true staying test that rewards class and tactical versatility. This looks a strong edition with genuine depth beyond the favourite.
🔥 Best Bet: SIR DELIUS 💰 Odds: ~$2.90 ⚡ Class tells in Group 1 company and this horse has it in spades — seven wins from fifteen starts at a 47% strike rate and an outstanding 87% place rate. Ran fourth first-up over 1600m at Flemington three weeks ago and the step to 2000m second-up is exactly where he wants to be. Carries top weight of 59kg but has won under big weights before, and Craig Williams in the saddle adds confidence.
💎 Best Value: COSMIC CRUSADER 💰 Odds: ~$6 💥 Ten wins from twenty-one starts at a 48% strike rate and an 81% place rate — numbers that stack up in any company. Ran a strong second over 1800m at Caulfield two weeks ago and the step to 2000m looks ideal. At $6 in a Group 1 with that career record, he represents outstanding value and maps to get every chance from barrier 4 with William Pike aboard.
🏇 Flemington R9 1200m – Group 2 Gilgai Stakes
📝 Race Overview: A quality weight-for-age sprint down the Flemington straight where experience at the course counts for plenty. The open nature of the betting suggests this is a genuinely competitive affair, and the straight-track specialists will have an edge.
🔥 Best Bet: SMOOTH CHINO 💰 Odds: ~$7 ⚡ A brilliant record of seven wins from eleven starts at a 64% strike rate, with a 91% place rate that’s almost unheard of. Ran third over 1100m at Morphettville three weeks ago and steps up to 1200m for the first time this preparation. His consistency is exceptional — he’s only missed a placing once in his career — and at $7 he looks excellent value in a wide-open Group 2.
💎 Best Value: ARKANSAW KID 💰 Odds: ~$9.50 💥 The ultimate place horse — ten seconds from thirty-four career starts tells you everything about his consistency. Ran fourth over 1200m at Flemington three weeks ago and he knows the straight track as well as anyone. At $9.50, the each-way return looks more than fair for a horse with a 59% place rate who has been competitive in this grade before.
🏇 Flemington R10 1400m – Listed Hkjc World Pool Paris Lane Stakes
📝 Race Overview: A Listed 1400m handicap to close out the Flemington card. A competitive field with a wide spread of chances, and the sort of race that rewards current form and fitness over raw class. Several fresh runners add an element of unpredictability.
🔥 Best Bet: TEN COMMANDMENTS 💰 Odds: ~$4.80 ⚡ Won his last start over 1600m at Bairnsdale two weeks ago and has ten wins from thirty-three starts with an impressive recent form string. Three wins from his last six starts shows he’s in a rich vein of form, and the drop from 1600m back to 1400m looks ideal. Drawn in barrier 3, which gives him every chance to settle in a forward position and kick strongly.
💎 Best Value: ENXUTO 💰 Odds: ~$7.50 💥 Ran third over 1200m at Flemington three weeks ago and steps up to 1400m, which looks the right trip. A 52% place rate from thirty-three starts shows durability and consistency, and the synthetic hoof filler comes off for the first time. At $7.50, he’s a genuine each-way chance in an open race with William Pike taking the ride.
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