Last week we found 4 winners from 8 races on Everest & Caulfield Cup Day!
- TEMPTED (Odds: ~$7.50)
- AUTUMN GLOW (Odds: ~$1.25)
- CROSS TASMAN (Odds: ~$2.15)
- SHADHAVAR (Odds: ~$3.60)
Our best day of the spring so far — four from eight with Tempted winning the Everest at a nice price and Shadhavar taking out the Tristarc as our value play. The momentum is there and the timing couldn’t be better, because this Saturday is Cox Plate Day.
The Moonee Valley meeting is racing at Flemington this year and the Group 1 Ladbrokes Cox Plate headlines a quality card over 2040 metres. Sir Delius, Warwoven and Aeliana head a fascinating weight-for-age clash, while the Group 2 Ladbrokes Moonee Valley Gold Cup and the Group 2 Kia Ora Stud Mile round out a brilliant afternoon.
Over at Randwick, the Group 1 Mot & Chandon Spring Champion Stakes is the feature — an unbeaten filly in Proxima Dea clashes with Global Goal in a race that could define the three-year-old season. The Group 2 Invitation and the Five Diamonds Prelude complete a strong card at headquarters.
Two states, eight feature races, three Group 1s and Group 2s everywhere you look. We’ve done the form and narrowed down our best bets and value plays for every race. Let’s get into it.
🏇 Flemington R6 1600m – Group 2 Kia Ora Stud Mile
📝 Race Overview: A quality Group 2 mile with the in-form Surfin’ Bird looking to continue her outstanding run. The field of twelve includes several proven milers but the mare towers over this field on recent form. Barrier draws and the likely tempo will be important in what should be a genuinely run 1600 metres.
🔥 Best Bet: SURFIN’ BIRD 💰 Odds: ~$2.50 ⚡ Six wins from eleven starts is a remarkable record and she’s clearly in the form of her life. Won last start at Caulfield over this distance and her 55% win strike rate tells you she rarely runs below her best. The 2kg sex allowance helps at set weights, James Childs sticks with her from barrier 7 and she maps to get a lovely run with cover in transit.
💎 Best Value: BUCKAROO 💰 Odds: ~$6.50 💥 The highest-rated runner in the field at 113 and over $3.7 million in career earnings — his class is undeniable. James McDonald is a significant jockey engagement and from barrier 4 he maps to get every chance just behind the speed. He drops back from 2000m to 1600m which should sharpen him up and if the pace is genuine he’s the type to be rattling home late.
🏇 Flemington R7 2500m – Group 2 Ladbrokes Moonee Valley Gold Cup
📝 Race Overview: A deep staying race over 2500 metres with several last-start winners in the mix. Aethelwulf’s extraordinary strike rate commands respect while the likes of Pinhole, Juja Kibo and King Pedro add genuine depth to a fascinating contest. The long Flemington straight will sort out the stayers from the flat-track battlers.
🔥 Best Bet: AETHELWULF 💰 Odds: ~$6 ⚡ Five wins from just eight career starts — a 63% strike rate that is simply outstanding for a stayer. His form string of 2×1511112 shows he almost never misses a place and his 88% place rate is the best in the field. Craig Williams partners from barrier 19 which is a query, but at 55.5kg he gets a significant weight advantage over the topweights and his relaxed racing style suggests the step to 2500m will suit.
💎 Best Value: MR MONACO 💰 Odds: ~$10 💥 Eight wins from 24 starts and crucially he won last start over 2520m at this track — he’s already proven at the distance and the venue. His form of 1x5110x401 shows three wins from his past five completed starts and his Flemington record is strong. Jamie Johnstone claims an apprentice allowance and at the price he looks a genuine each-way chance in a race where proven staying form is essential.
🏇 Flemington R8 2040m – Group 1 Ladbrokes Cox Plate
📝 Race Overview: The weight-for-age championship of Australasia and a fascinating edition with no dominant favourite. Sir Delius brings the best consistency, Warwoven the X-factor of a brilliant three-year-old on the rise, and Aeliana the proven Group 1 mare with a 2kg sex allowance. Cosmic Crusader drops back from the Caulfield Cup and several others have legitimate claims in one of the most open Cox Plates in years.
🔥 Best Bet: SIR DELIUS 💰 Odds: ~$4.20 ⚡ Seven wins from sixteen starts, an 81% place rate and the highest rating in the field at 119 — his consistency at the elite level is unmatched. Craig Williams partners from barrier 5 which gives him a perfect position to settle in the first half. His form of 211x331x44 shows he handles 2000m and has nearly $5 million in career earnings. He’s the type who keeps lifting when challenged and in a truly open Cox Plate he looks the safest play.
💎 Best Value: COSMIC CRUSADER 💰 Odds: ~$8.50 💥 Eleven wins from 23 starts at a 48% strike rate — he’s a freak on his day. Last start’s fourth in the Caulfield Cup over 2400m can be forgiven from barrier 17 and the drop back to 2040m is ideal. William Pike stays on and his form string of 112×113214 shows how rarely he runs a bad race. At nearly double the favourite’s price he represents genuine value for a horse with a rating of 118 and $2.7 million in the bank.
🏇 Flemington R9 2040m – Group 3 Powerflo Solutions Tesio Stakes
📝 Race Overview: A mares’ handicap over the Cox Plate distance and a wide-open affair with several in-form runners engaged. Soverato heads the market for Chris Waller while the likes of Perfect Ten, Ocean Bay and Too Darn Discreet all bring strong recent form to the table. The 2040m trip will test a few who are stepping up in distance.
🔥 Best Bet: SOVERATO 💰 Odds: ~$5.50 ⚡ The market favourite for good reason — Chris Waller has aimed her at this race and Damian Lane is a key jockey engagement from barrier 7. She ran third of seventeen last start at Randwick over 1600m which was a solid effort in a strong field. Two wins from eleven starts is a modest record on paper but she’s well weighted at 54kg and the step to 2040m looks ideal for a mare with her breeding and racing pattern.
💎 Best Value: OCEAN BAY 💰 Odds: ~$11 💥 Four wins from her last five starts is the best current form of any runner in this field and she won last start over 2025m at Cranbourne — essentially the same trip as Saturday. Five wins from eleven starts at a 45% strike rate shows she’s a talented mare on the rise. Dean Stackhouse rides at 54kg and while the step up to Group 3 level is a test, her recent record suggests she’s more than capable of handling the rise in grade.
🏇 Randwick R7 2000m – Group 1 Mot & Chandon Spring Champion Stakes
📝 Race Overview: The classic three-year-old middle-distance test and a race that could shape the autumn carnival. Global Goal is the clear favourite after winning at this track but the unbeaten Proxima Dea looms as the genuine threat — four wins from four starts and stepping to 2000m for the first time. Several colts add intrigue in what should be a fascinating clash.
🔥 Best Bet: GLOBAL GOAL 💰 Odds: ~$2.90 ⚡ Two wins from four starts with a perfect 100% place rate — she hasn’t missed a top-three finish in her career. Won last start at Randwick over 1600m three weeks ago and the step to 2000m looks well within her compass. Dylan Gibbons rides at 54.5kg with the filly’s weight advantage and her Randwick form is proven. In a race full of question marks, she’s the safest option.
💎 Best Value: PROXIMA DEA 💰 Odds: ~$5 💥 Unbeaten in four career starts — a perfect record that demands respect. Her form string of 1111 tells the whole story and she won last start over 1800m at Rosehill in impressive fashion. Zac Lloyd rides at 54.5kg and the only question is the step from 1800m to 2000m. At $5 she represents terrific value for a filly who simply has not been beaten and has won her races with authority.
🏇 Randwick R8 1400m – Group 2 The Invitation
📝 Race Overview: A quality mares’ sprint over 1400 metres with Lazzura resuming her rivalry with several she’s already beaten this preparation. Gerringong brings the speed factor after winning fresh last start while the likes of Verona Rose and Perfumist add depth to a competitive field. A solid tempo looks assured with several on-pace runners drawn wide.
🔥 Best Bet: LAZZURA 💰 Odds: ~$3.20 ⚡ Seven wins from nineteen starts and a 68% place rate that shows how rarely she misses. Won last start at Rosehill over this distance four weeks ago in authoritative fashion and Tommy Berry sticks with her from barrier 12. The freshness from four weeks between runs should have her peaking and she has proven 1400m form at the highest level.
💎 Best Value: VERONA ROSE 💰 Odds: ~$7.50 💥 Five wins from seventeen starts with a 53% place rate and crucially she ran second behind Lazzura over this distance at Rosehill last start — the form reference couldn’t be stronger. Kerrin McEvoy rides from barrier 4 which is a significant advantage over the favourite’s wide draw. She gets a half-kilo pull in the weights at 58.5kg and at the price she looks terrific each-way value in a race where the main form is proven.
🏇 Randwick R9 1500m – Five Diamonds Prelude
📝 Race Overview: A fascinating five-year-old set weights race restricted to the single age group and a genuinely open betting affair. Declichy Boulevard and Linebacker head the market but neither has been dominant recently. Welcometotheshow adds a twist after being redirected from the Flemington card, while Evaporate is a dual acceptor who shapes as a significant runner wherever he starts.
🔥 Best Bet: LINEBACKER 💰 Odds: ~$3.60 ⚡ Ran third of fifteen last start at Rosehill over 1400m which was a solid effort in a quality field. Four wins from nineteen starts doesn’t read spectacularly on paper, but Zac Lloyd sticks with him from barrier 2 where he maps to get a lovely run on the fence. The step from 1400m to 1500m suits and he shapes as the type to grind out a result over the slightly longer trip.
💎 Best Value: WELCOMETOTHESHOW 💰 Odds: ~$7 💥 Seven wins from twenty starts and an 80% place rate that makes him one of the most consistent horses on the card — he almost always runs in the money. Redirected here after being scratched from the Kia Ora Stud Mile at Flemington which suggests the stable sees this as his better option. From barrier 4 at 56kg he gets a 3.5kg pull on the topweight and his form of 11189×2613 shows he handles this grade comfortably. At the price he looks outstanding each-way value.
🏇 Randwick R10 1600m – Robrick Lodge Filante Handicap
📝 Race Overview: A competitive mile handicap to close the Randwick card with Estadio Mestalla heading the market after back-to-back seconds. Anthracite is the danger after winning last start and the 9kg weight swing between the two could prove decisive. Expect this to be run at a genuine tempo with several on-pace runners engaged.
🔥 Best Bet: ESTADIO MESTALLA 💰 Odds: ~$2.80 ⚡ Eight wins from 42 starts and over $2.1 million in career earnings — he’s the proven class runner of this field. Second at both starts this preparation and Nash Rawiller sticks with him from barrier 2 where he’ll get every chance. His 57% place rate across 42 starts speaks to remarkable consistency and the 1600m looks his ideal trip. He’s overdue to convert one of those seconds into a win.
💎 Best Value: ANTHRACITE 💰 Odds: ~$4.20 💥 Five wins from thirteen starts at a 38% strike rate and a 77% place rate that is the best in the field. Won last start at Rosehill over 2000m and while he drops back in distance, the 52kg he carries gives him a massive 9kg pull on the favourite. Adrian Adkins rides and from barrier 10 he should settle in a nice position with cover. His record of 70×3432131 shows he’s been in outstanding form this preparation and at the price he looks hard to leave out.
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