Last week we found 6 winners from 8 races on Cox Plate Day — our best day of the spring!
- SURFIN’ BIRD (Odds: ~$3.10)
- COSMIC CRUSADER (Odds: ~$8)
- SOVERATO (Odds: ~$4.80)
- PROXIMA DEA (Odds: ~$3.80)
- LAZZURA (Odds: ~$2.70)
- ANTHRACITE (Odds: ~$3.60)
It doesn’t get much bigger than this. Victoria Derby Day at Flemington is the opening act of the Melbourne Cup Carnival and one of the great days on the Australian racing calendar. Three Group 1 races headline a brilliant card, with the Coolmore Stud Stakes for the three-year-old sprinters, the Victoria Derby over the classic 2500 metres, and the Empire Rose Stakes for the mares all set to deliver first-class racing.
Over at Randwick, the Group 1 Golden Eagle is the centrepiece — a $10 million race restricted to four-year-olds over 1500 metres that has quickly become one of the most anticipated events on the Sydney calendar. The Group 2 Russell Balding Stakes and the Listed Sydney Gold Cup complete a strong supporting card at headquarters.
Two states, eight feature races, and the spring carnival at full throttle. We’ve done the form across both meetings and locked in our best bets and value plays for what shapes as a spectacular afternoon of racing.
🏇 Flemington R6 1200m – Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes (3YO Set Weights)
📝 Race Overview: The three-year-old sprint championship down the Flemington straight with a quality field of fourteen. The Next Episode and St Gotthard look the two to fight this out, but Natural Fling and Satono Glow give the fillies a strong chance against the colts. Barrier draws matter down the straight and the pace should be genuine with several on-speed types engaged.
🔥 Best Bet: THE NEXT EPISODE 💰 Odds: ~$3.70 ⚡ An outstanding record of four wins from six starts with a 67% win strike rate and 83% place rate. His form string reads 0x1211x1 — he’s second-up here after winning first-up and has a strong pattern of improvement with racing. Mark Zahra retains the ride on what looks the most reliable runner in the field.
💎 Best Value: SATONO GLOW 💰 Odds: ~$5 💥 Four wins from five starts is a remarkable record for any three-year-old, and her form string of 114×11 tells the story — she’s won her past two starts and has an 80% career win rate. Second-up after a first-up victory, the only query is whether she’s up to Group 1 level, but the price accounts for that.
🏇 Flemington R7 2500m – Group 1 Howden Victoria Derby (3YO Set Weights)
📝 Race Overview: The classic staying test for the three-year-olds over 2500 metres. This looks a wide-open Derby with no dominant favourite, and stamina is the great unknown — most of these are stepping to the distance for the first time. Stormy Marco, Cormier and Quick Finish head a field where the race shape and settling position could prove decisive.
🔥 Best Bet: STORMY MARCO 💰 Odds: ~$4.60 ⚡ James McDonald picks up the ride on a colt with a solid platform of form this preparation. His form string of 183×2954 shows he’s deep into this campaign and his recent placings suggest he’s building towards a peak performance. Barrier 16 is awkward but McDonald has the tactical nous to manage it over the 2500 metres.
💎 Best Value: QUICK FINISH 💰 Odds: ~$19 💥 Three wins from four starts including a hat-trick of victories — her form string of 5111 shows an upward trajectory that’s hard to ignore. The filly has found her groove with racing this preparation and at the price she looks a genuine each-way chance if the classic distance suits. Jamie McNeil stays aboard after their winning sequence.
🏇 Flemington R8 1600m – Group 1 TAB Empire Rose Stakes (WFA F&M)
📝 Race Overview: The weight-for-age mile championship for the fillies and mares features a compact field of eleven. Lady Shenandoah and Surfin’ Bird look the clear top two on recent form and ratings, and this shapes as a genuine match race between them. The mile trip on a big Flemington track should suit the quality runners.
🔥 Best Bet: LADY SHENANDOAH 💰 Odds: ~$2.50 ⚡ The highest-rated runner in the field at 116 with earnings over $5 million. Her record of six wins from eighteen starts includes consistent placings — a 33% win and 72% place rate tells you she rarely runs a bad race. James McDonald riding for what looks a class edge over her rivals at weight-for-age.
💎 Best Value: UNLEESHING 💰 Odds: ~$8.50 💥 Her recent form string of 31152×2211 is outstanding — five wins and five placings from her past ten starts for a 36% win rate and 86% place rate. She’s won two of her past three and the drop back to the mile at Flemington looks ideal. At $8.50 she’s a genuine each-way proposition in a race where the top two could be vulnerable.
🏇 Flemington R9 1100m – Group 3 Asahi Super Dry Sprint (4YO+ Mares SW+P)
📝 Race Overview: A mares’ sprint down the Flemington straight to close the Derby Day card. Flying For Fun looks the one to beat as the clear market favourite, but there’s depth in this field with Bridal Waltz and Geegees Mistruth both proven mares at this level. A genuine tempo should set up a strong finish down the famous straight.
🔥 Best Bet: FLYING FOR FUN 💰 Odds: ~$2.50 ⚡ James McDonald aboard the clear top-rated runner at 106 with four wins and four placings from seventeen starts. Her 57kg looks fair in a set-weights-plus-penalty race and she’s the proven Group performer in this field. The Flemington straight should suit her style of racing and she looks well placed to add to her record.
💎 Best Value: BRIDAL WALTZ 💰 Odds: ~$5.50 💥 A mare with a brilliant place strike rate — six wins, four placings and five thirds from twenty starts gives her a 30% win and 75% place rate. Her form string of 23x172x223 shows she’s rarely far from the action and at $5.50 she looks over the odds in a race where the favourite has to give her weight. Ben Melham takes the ride.
🏇 Randwick R7 1300m – Group 2 The Russell Balding Stakes (SW+P)
📝 Race Overview: A strong set-weights-plus-penalty race over 1300 metres featuring some hardened sprinter-milers. Headwall stands out with his brilliant consistency, while Jimmysstar brings Group 1 credentials and the class factor. The race should be run at a solid tempo with Grafterburners and Ninja likely to ensure the speed is genuine.
🔥 Best Bet: HEADWALL 💰 Odds: ~$4 ⚡ The most consistent horse in the field with seven wins, six seconds and four thirds from twenty-one starts — a 33% win rate and 81% place rate is exceptional at this level. His form string of 4232x1x254 shows he’s competitive nearly every start and Craig Schofield retains the ride. Maps to get a soft run from barrier 3.
💎 Best Value: GRAFTERBURNERS 💰 Odds: ~$9 💥 Seven wins from eighteen starts and the four-year-old won last start, reading a 1 at the right of his form string 11x300x841. Nash Rawiller retains the ride at 57.5kg and he brings a high rating of 113 into a race where his best form stacks up. At $9 he offers genuine each-way value if he can back up that last-start victory at Group 2 level.
🏇 Randwick R8 1500m – Group 1 Asahi Super Dry Golden Eagle (4YO Set Weights)
📝 Race Overview: The $10 million showpiece restricted to four-year-olds over 1500 metres. Sheza Alibi is the dominant favourite with a sensational record, but the set-weights conditions bring others into the contest. Beiwacht and Autumn Boy loom as the main dangers, with the step to 1500 metres a test for all runners. A fascinating race with enormous stakes.
🔥 Best Bet: SHEZA ALIBI 💰 Odds: ~$1.70 ⚡ Eight wins from thirteen starts for a 62% win strike rate and a perfect 100% place rate — she has never missed a placing in her career. Her form string of 11x111x212 is simply outstanding and she carries $4.5 million in prizemoney. Nash Rawiller has been replaced by Luke Nolen but her class is undeniable at set weights where the mares’ allowance gives her 55.5kg.
💎 Best Value: BEIWACHT 💰 Odds: ~$7 💥 A Norton Bit goes on for the first time here, which suggests connections are looking for improvement. Four wins and three placings from sixteen starts shows he’s competitive at this level, and his form string of 4x8261x193 includes a last-start third that was full of merit. At $7 he offers value as a genuine alternative to the favourite if she has an off day.
🏇 Randwick R9 2000m – Listed Sydney Gold Cup (Quality)
📝 Race Overview: A staying test over 2000 metres with a field that includes several proven middle-distance performers. Starzintheireyes and Anthracite have caught the market’s attention and rightly so — both are consistent performers at the trip. The genuine stayers should be advantaged late and the race looks set to be run at a solid tempo throughout.
🔥 Best Bet: STARZINTHEIREYES 💰 Odds: ~$3.90 ⚡ His place record stands out — two wins, four seconds and one third from eleven starts for an 18% win rate and a 64% place rate. His form string of 75x236x224 shows he’s hit the frame at his past three starts and is building towards a peak. Craig Schofield takes the ride on a horse who looks ideally suited to this trip and class.
💎 Best Value: ANTHRACITE 💰 Odds: ~$4.80 💥 Six wins, two placings and three thirds from fourteen starts gives him a 43% win rate and 79% place rate — outstanding consistency. His recent form string of 0x34321311 shows he’s won three of his past four starts and is in career-best form. He drops to 53.5kg here, which looks a significant advantage, and at $4.80 he shapes as a genuine winning chance rather than just a value play.
🏇 Randwick R10 1100m – Catanach’s Jewellers Handicap (Bm78)
📝 Race Overview: A competitive benchmark sprint to close the Randwick card with scratchings reducing the field. Somerton Smart has the form on the board and the low weight, while Where’stheprofit brings the consistency factor. A genuine tempo looks likely and this could set up for a horse coming from just off the speed.
🔥 Best Bet: SOMERTON SMART 💰 Odds: ~$4.80 ⚡ Four wins from eight starts for a 50% win rate is impressive for any horse at this stage of his career. His form string of 1x445x15x1 shows he won last start and has the ability to produce his best when fresh. Gets in well at the weights with 54.5kg and Dylan Gibbons stays aboard after their recent success together.
💎 Best Value: WHERE’STHEPROFIT 💰 Odds: ~$9 💥 Six wins and three placings from eleven starts for a 55% win strike rate and 82% place rate is simply outstanding. His form string of 4x2211x121 shows he’s won two of his past three starts and is in terrific form. The 58.5kg is the query, but his record suggests he can carry it, and at $9 there’s genuine each-way value in a competitive sprint.
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