Hawkesbury Headlines & Derby Dreams – Group Racing Ignites Across Two States! We’re in for a cracking Saturday as Hawkesbury takes center stage in New South Wales, delivering a five-star line-up of Group and Listed races. From tough milers to sharp sprinters and progressive three-year-olds, the card is stacked with talent. Meanwhile, Morphettville hosts the staying test of the Port Adelaide Cup, adding depth to the day’s action. Let’s dive into the form, flair, and value with runners that demand your attention.
📝 Race Overview: Talented three-year-olds tackle this sharp 1400m. Several progressive types come through strong form lines, with tactics and tempo likely to shape the outcome.
🔥 Best to Back Tip: Pisces (Odds: $18.00) 💥 “Still raw but bursting with ability. If the tempo’s hot, don’t be shocked when she storms home.“
💎 Best Value Bet: Fearless (Odds: ~$23.00) ⚡“Strong finish at Randwick in good company. Peaks here and maps to pounce late.“
📝 Race Overview: A deep and classy edition of the Cup, with proven Group horses clashing over the mile. Track position will be key, but a fast tempo should bring the backmarkers into play late.
🔥 Best to Back Tip: Osipenko (Odds: $10.00) 💥 “Big engine and loves the mile. Draws to get the gun run and bring his explosive turn-of-foot into play.”
💎 Best Value Bet: Strait Acer (Odds: ~$51.00) ⚡ “Flashed home in the Doncaster. With a clear path, he can blouse them late and blow up exotics.Forget the run – absolutely no luck last time. Smart trial since. Could be the blowout no one sees coming.”
📝 Race Overview: A classic staying contest for the three-year-olds where stamina, timing, and toughness will decide the result. With form lines converging from multiple states, this Derby offers a brilliant blend of up-and-comers and proven performers ready to peak.
🔥 Best to Back Tip: American Wolf (Odds: $8.00) 💥 “Trialled like a stayer and ran a bottler over 2800m last start. If he handles the back-up and tempo, he’s a knockout chance at a price.“
💎 Best Value Bet: Goldrush Guru(Odds: ~$9.50) ⚡ “Flying this prep and ready to eat up the 2500m. Strong second last start and everything points to him peaking here with the right run.”
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Anzac Weekend Racing Across the Nation – Randwick, Flemington, Ascot & Morphettville Set to Roar!
We’re set for a blockbuster weekend of racing that celebrates tradition, toughness, and the thrill of the turf.
The spotlight shines brightest on the $5 million Kia Quokka in WA, the classic staying test of the VRC St Leger at Flemington, and South Australia’s crown jewel for fillies—the Australasian Oaks at Morphettville. With support acts like the Queen Of The South Stakes and the ANZAC Day Stakes, punters and fans are in for a feast of quality across all distances and states. Let’s dive into the runners, form, and value across the key cards.
📝 Race Overview: A competitive edition with plenty of progressive juveniles. Five last-start winners line up, and there’s a mix of race experience and unexposed talent—classic ANZAC Stakes ingredients. Watch for late market moves, especially around the lone debutant, HIGHVOL.
🔥 Best to Back Tip: Legacy Bound(Odds: ~$2.60) Blew them away last start and the form is stacking up. From a good draw and up in trip, he looks the clear one to beat.
💎 Best Value Bet: Just Kick(Odds: ~$7.50) Eye-catching debut behind a talented winner. The step to 1400m is perfect and she profiles as a sharp improver.
📝 Race Overview: The ultimate staying test for three-year-olds, with many venturing beyond 2400m for the first time. Expect tactics, tempo, and stamina to decide it. A great mix of lightly tried stayers and pedigrees bred to go all day.
🔥 Best to Back Tip: Format(Odds: ~$4.60) Stable targets this race well and the tongue tie might unlock his best. Ready-made for 2800m and looks primed.
💎 Best Value Bet: Wimmera Star(Odds: ~$26.00) Strong late last start and bred to appreciate this rise in trip. Massive price for one on the up.
📝 Race Overview: Classy fillies and mares contest this Group 2 mile. Progressive types and seasoned performers clash in what shapes as a truly run race. Those with a turn of foot and stamina should feature late.
🔥 Best to Back Tip: Zloties(Odds: ~$3.70) Progressive and ready for the mile after strong Bendigo win. She looks poised to keep climbing the grades.
💎 Best Value Bet: Wings of Song(Odds: ~$26.00) Great second-up stats and a sneaky run fresh. Can charge late off the right tempo.
📝 Race Overview: Staying fillies do battle in the classic Oaks test. Many have been building nicely toward this trip, and the mix of eastern state invaders and in-form locals makes it a genuine contest.
🔥 Best to Back Tip: Benagil(Odds: ~$3.70) Ideal prep and beautifully placed. Form around her stacks up and she maps to get the right run.
💎 Best Value Bet: Movin Out(Odds: ~$5.50) Looked a staying type last start and brings real X-factor at double figures.
📝 Race Overview: WA’s newest and richest sprint is fast becoming a must-watch. A field packed with class sprinters from east and west line up, with early tempo and track position likely to prove decisive.
🔥 Best to Back Tip: Overpass(Odds: ~$2.10) Returns to his happy hunting ground in top form. From a suitable draw, he’s the one they’ll all need to catch.
💎 Best Value Bet: Front Page(Odds: ~$7.00) Has the speed to lead and the toughness to hold on. If the race falls into his lap, he could go all the way at juicy odds.
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Big names, big money, and wide-open features – Group 1 glory on the line at Randwick.
The curtain comes down on the Sydney Autumn Racing Carnival with a spectacular day at Royal Randwick, headlined by the Group 1 Schweppes All Aged Stakes and the Group 1 Moët & Chandon Champagne Stakes.
After six brilliant weeks of racing, $41 million in prizemoney, and iconic performances across Royal Randwick and Rosehill Gardens, we finish with a flourish. Two prestigious Group 1s, rising stars, and tough veterans come together for one last epic showdown.
🧠 Overview: A classic edition of this 2000m Group 3, often a tricky race where late-season three-year-olds try to cap off their campaigns. SWIFTFALCON and FIRM AGREEMENT bring high-level G1 form and look to dominate here. The tempo should be even, suiting those who can finish strong late.
🏇 Best to Back: #1 Swiftfalcon
🔥 $1.80 – The proven class
Why: Placed in both the Randwick Guineas and Rosehill Guineas, SWIFTFALCON has been racing at a high level all prep. He maps well, has a sharp turn of foot, and boasts a 3–1 record over key rival FIRM AGREEMENT in their matchups.
✅ Genuine Group 1 credentials
✅ Proven at Randwick
✅ Versatile in all track conditions
💰 Best Value: #7 Maison Louis
💥 $14.00 –Sneaky improver
Why: Coming off a strong Goulburn win, this gelding is flying under the radar. Handles the trip, continues to improve, and brings the sort of profile that can pop at odds in this race.
🧠 Overview: A more tactical affair than most, with a lack of obvious speed. BOIS D’ARGENT looks to control things up front with ENCAP stretching out to 2000m for the first time. Late swoopers like FLYING BANDIT and SOUNDS OF HEAVEN could have their say if the tempo is right.
🏇 Best to Back: #2 Bois D’Argent
🔥 $10.00 – Third-up & ready
Why: Ran 4th in this race last year and comes into this off a pair of solid efforts against good horses. Peaks now third-up, maps to get the run of the race, and has the experience at this track and trip to take full advantage.
✅ 3rd-up specialist
✅ Strong late splits last start
✅ Maps to settle on pace in a slowly run race
💰 Best Value: #11 Sounds Of Heaven
💥 $19.00 – Backing up with upside
Why: On the quick back-up after hitting the line well last start. Wide draw shouldn’t worry her if the pace slackens and she’s got a late burst that suits this kind of tempo.
🧠 Overview: The grand final for the 2YOs over the mile. With several backing up from the Inglis Sires’ and Golden Slipper, experience matters. WITHIN THE LAW and TUPAKARA lead the market, but upsets are no stranger to this race. Map suggests a moderately run contest.
🏇 Best to Back: #7 Within The Law
🔥 $4.80 – Elite juvenile form
Why: Placed in the Golden Slipper and still improving. This colt has proven he can handle the big stage, and the step to 1600m looks perfect at this point in his prep.
✅ Golden Slipper 3rd
✅ Tough & consistent
✅ Peak fitness on the seven-day back-up
💰 Best Value: #9 Spicy Liu
💥 $21.00 – Untapped and unbeaten
Why: Three-from-three to kick off her career, including a gritty last-start win in stakes company. She keeps defying expectations and stepping up when asked. Unknown at the mile but has shown the toughness and racing style to give this a shake at a juicy quote.
🧠 Overview: One of the great weight-for-age sprints of the season. A high-quality edition with depth and angles galore. Expect a genuine tempo with BELCLARE and BRIASA up on speed, BROADSIDING stalking just behind.
🏇 Best to Back: #14 Broadsiding
🔥 $6.00– Group 1 class, perfect setup
Why: He was enormous in the Rosehill Guineas and drops back to 1400m in a setup that looks very deliberate. The soft draw allows for tactical flexibility and he’s been strong at this level before.
✅ Classy 3YO with strong WFA credentials
✅ Perfect draw to sit close
✅ Handles all conditions
💰 Best Value: #9 Magic Time
💥 $11.00– Ready to peak
Why: Placed behind Think About It in the Canterbury Stakes, and this looks like her target run. She’s a genuine Group 1 performer who handles Randwick well.
✅ Group 1 placed this prep
✅ Strong finishing ability
✅ Can settle closer from barrier 5
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We’re back at Randwick for the second installment of The Championships.
Get ready for an epic showdown at Royal Randwick tomorrow as Day 2 of The Star Championships takes centre stage—dubbed the “Grand Finals of Australian Racing” for good reason. With four massive Group 1 races headlining the day, including the legendary $5 million Queen Elizabeth Stakes, the stage is set for another chapter in racing history.
This iconic race has seen champions etched into folklore—none more so than the mighty Winx, whose unforgettable farewell in 2019 marked her third consecutive win in this very event. Alongside it, the $2 million Schweppes Sydney Cup, $1 million Asahi Super Dry Australian Oaks, and the $1 million TAB Queen of The Turf Stakes promise a card stacked with high stakes, elite talent, and edge-of-your-seat moments.
Whether you’re a seasoned punter or just in it for the spectacle, tomorrow at Randwick is not to be missed.
🧠 Overview: The Grand Final for the three-year-old fillies. A deep staying contest where proven G1 class meets promising stayers on the rise. The tempo looks genuine with several runners likely to push forward, making this a true staying test—2400m form and late strength will be key.
🏇 Best to Back: #2 Treasurethe Moment
🔥 $1.70 – The standout class runner in the race
Why: Treasurethe Moment is a dominant force this prep. A dual Group 1 winner including the VRC Oaks and Vinery, she’s proven over distance and thrives on any ground. She’s perfectly drawn, maps well just off the speed, and has a lethal turn of foot. This is her race to lose.
✅ 8 wins from 10 starts | 100% place strike rate
✅ Dual G1 winner – VRC Oaks & Vinery
✅ Handles both dry and wet tracks
💰 Best Value: #5 Belle Detelle
💥 $8.50 –Represents strong each-way value
Why: Belle Detelle arrives with peak staying form, off a strong Adrian Knox win—historically a proven Oaks lead-up. She’s bred to run all day and brings a stamina-rich pedigree (a close relative to Verry Elleegant). She’ll be strong late and looks ready for 2400m.
🧠 Overview: This year’s edition has a familiar mix of seasoned stayers and progressive imports, with tempo likely to be genuine given several forward-rolling types like Arapaho and Kalapour. The step up to two miles will test many, with track and distance credentials proving key. Local experience and proven stamina look crucial here.
🏇 Best to Back: #4 Circle Of Fire
🔥 $19.00 – Excellent profile for this
Why: This horse is tailor-made for the Sydney Cup — an import who’s thrived since coming to Australia, with a perfect record over this track and distance. He maps beautifully just behind the speed, has a serious engine late, and brings genuine Group 1 quality. While others may be more glamorous, he’s the one with the profile and numbers to back it up.
✅ 2 from 2 at Randwick
✅ 2 from 2 at 2400m (and bred to run 3200m)
✅ Handles all conditions & race-fit
💰 Best Value: #13 Mostly Cloudy
💥 $41.00 – Each-way special
Why: Mostly Cloudy is a reliable, battle-hardened stayer who’s been hitting the line strongly over longer distances. He’s run well at 2600m+ multiple times and is trending the right way this prep. With a good draw and a hungry apprentice in the saddle, he can stalk the speed and pounce late — a huge value play in exotics or each-way.
🧠 Overview: A true weight-for-age Group 1 classic with a mix of local champions and international raiders. The tempo should be genuine, with several on-pace types engaged, and the 2000m at Randwick always tests stamina and turn-of-foot. VIA SISTINA returns to defend her turf and is clearly the one to beat — but some serious global class sits in opposition.
🏇 Best to Back: #12 Via Sistina
🔥 $1.95 – The class act in the field
Why: Since her defeat by Pride Of Jenni in this race last year, VIA SISTINA has gone unbeaten over 2000m in Australia. She’s a relentless, strong-travelling mare who thrives under pressure and simply knows how to win. Drawn well, in top form, and has the country’s premier jockey aboard — she ticks every box.
✅ Undefeated at 2000m since arriving in Australia
✅ 7x Group 1 winner on Australian soil
✅ Drawn to find a perfect spot
💰 Best Value: #2 Rousham Park
💥 $15.00 – Respect the international class
Why: The Japanese raider brings elite form, including a narrow defeat in the Breeders’ Cup Turf and strong performances at this distance back home. Christophe Lemaire doesn’t travel for fun, and while the draw isn’t ideal, Rousham Park should roll forward and give a massive sight at double figures.
🧠 Overview: A stellar field of quality mares takes to the track, with Fangirl firmly in the spotlight as the horse to beat. Other contenders like Stefi Magnetica, Lazzura, and Grinzinger Belle will be looking to spoil the party in a wide-open contest. Expect a tactical race, with some key factors like draw positions and track conditions playing a big role.
🏇 Best to Back: #1 Fangirl
🔥 $1.95 – The class act in the field
Why: Fangirl is one of the best 1600m mares in the land, proven across multiple seasons, and extremely well suited at set weights. Coming into this race in excellent form, she won the Apollo Stakes (1400m), was second to Via Sistina in the Verry Elleegant (1600m), and second to Gringotts in the George Ryder (1500m), which didn’t suit her. With James McDonald aboard and a perfect inside draw, she’s the one to beat.
✅ Proven top-class mare at 1600m
✅ Form suggests she’s the class runner
✅ James McDonald aboard & inside draw
💰 Best Value: #2 Stefi Magnetica
💥 $5.00 – The horse to put it up to Fangirl
Why: Stefi Magnetica’s stocks soared with her impressive Doncaster Mile win last Saturday, which marked her second Group 1 victory, following on from her Stradbroke (1400m) win. Although not as well suited at the weights this time around, she’s still better served than most and will be well placed just ahead of Fangirl in the running. Her consistency at the top level and good draw make her a genuine each-way contender.
✅ Two Group 1 wins to her name
✅ Drawn to be ahead of Fangirl in running
✅ Versatile and consistent at elite level
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The Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning (1000m) takes center stage at Flemington this Saturday, headlining a stacked 10-race program, read on for our professional insights and value bets
After a scorching week, Melbourne’s weather is set to cool down, with a top of 18 degrees and showers expected throughout the day.
Punters can anticipate a Soft 5 track, with the rail in the true position. The first race is scheduled to jump at 12:15pm AEDT, setting the scene for a high-stakes day of racing action.
3 YEAR OLDS: A CHANGING OF THE GUARD?
The time-honoured Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning (1000m) headlines a blockbuster 10-race program at Flemington this Saturday, with $750,000 in prize money up for grabs.
A high-quality field of 12, including five Group 1 winners, will charge down the famous Flemington straight in what promises to be a thrilling edition of this prestigious sprint.
Early Black Caviar Lightning betting suggests a potential changing of the guard, with three superstar three-year-olds dominating the market. However, a handful of seasoned older sprinters are primed to spoil the party in Flemington’s first Group 1 of 2025, setting the stage for a high-stakes battle between youth and experience.
King’s Valley comes into this in top form after a strong win at Sandown three weeks ago. He had a dream run in transit before sprinting clear for a dominant victory. With confidence high and a winnable race ahead, he looks a solid bet at current odds, given the main market elects might be a touch short.
💰Best Value: Le Zebra ($7.00)
Le Zebra has been knocking on the door and should appreciate the rise to 2000m. He ran on well last start over 1600m, finishing third in a competitive race, and this distance should suit him perfectly. Given his consistency, he presents a good value play at each-way odds.
Race Insights
Revelare is the horse to beat, having won three straight and breaking the track record last start. However, with likely short odds, it’s not an attractive betting prospect.
Miss Tarzy and Shiny New Deel have each-way claims based on their recent form.
Fagin ($23) is an interesting long shot, coming off a strong Moonee Valley win over 2040m.
Final Thoughts
Revelare is the clear class runner, but backing him at unders isn’t ideal. King’s Valley offers the strongest form at a backable price, while Le Zebra is well-suited up in distance and provides solid value.
This filly looks to have plenty of upside. She was strong late in the Chairmans Stakes last start, just missing behind Inkaruna, and has shown she can handle the straight at Flemington. With minimal pace in the race, she maps well and looks primed to break through.
💰Best Value: Tentyris ($15.00)
Tentyris made his debut in the Chairmans Stakes but was caught inside, which wasn’t the best place to be. He had shown excellent jump-out form before that race, so he could easily improve second-up with the added experience. At $15, he represents solid each-way value.
Race Insights
Shining Smile is the class horse and chasing three straight wins but might be under the odds given question marks over the depth of his last start win.
Blethyn has trialed impressively and could be the best of the unraced brigade.
Hiatus is an unknown quantity but looked professional when winning on debut.
Final Thoughts
With Shining Smile likely to be well found in the market, Sword of Legacy offers the strongest win bet at a backable price, while Tentyris is the value play with scope for big improvement second-up.
Fancify is the standout selection based on both form and track record. She was strong when resuming in the Bellmaine Stakes over 1200m, leading throughout before condition gave way late. Now second-up, stepping to 1400m at Flemington—a track where she excels—she looks the horse to beat with front-running control.
💰 Best Value: Wrote To Arataki ($9.00)
Wrote To Arataki ran well fresh in the Bellmaine, sticking on strongly despite being on speed in a race that suited those running on. With a more patient ride and stepping up to 1400m, she looks well placed to be in the finish at an each-way price.
🎯 Race Insights
Flying Fizz has strong claims given her record on dry ground and a favourable draw.
Miraval Rose is a threat if she finds her best, but her last run was below expectations.
Bizot and Plenty of Ammo could be running on late, but both need the right tempo to feature.
Final Thoughts
With a race shape that suits leaders, Fancify should take catching, while Wrote To Arataki is a solid each-way play at $9, given her ability to be on speed and fight on.
Smokin’ Princess is flying at the moment, winning three of her last four starts. She produced a powerful finish to win at Sandown last start, and the step back to Flemington suits. While drawn wide, she’s adaptable and in strong enough form to handle it. At $8, she presents as the most reliable bet at a backable price.
💰 Best Value: Umgawa ($15.00)
Umgawa was desperately unlucky last start at Sandown, getting held up badly before charging home late. With clear running this time, he looks set to peak at his home track. At $15, he’s a great each-way option in an open race.
🎯 Race Insights
Verdad is a consistent performer but has become a costly horse for punters, placing in six straight starts without winning.
Ziryab is improving and has won his last two but steps up in grade here.
Arqana has strong closing sectionals and could be a danger if the race is run to suit.
Watadeel ($23.00) is a genuine longshot that will appreciate stepping up to 1600m.
Final Thoughts
Smokin’ Princess is the in-form runner and offers the best win betting option at $8. Umgawa has a great each-way chance at $15, given how unlucky he was last start. This is an open race, but both selections should be in the finish.
Wiggum has been knocking on the door with strong performances down the Flemington straight. He’s placed in his last two runs here and keeps finding the line well. With a good setup in this race and a slight drop in weight, he finally gets his chance to break through.
💰 Best Value: Veloce Carro ($5.50)
Veloce Carro was solid first-up at Flemington and is expected to improve off that effort. He has the ability to be in the finish and looks a value play, especially given his upside second-up. If he sharpens up from the fresh run, he can surprise the market.
🎯 Race Insights
Shesallshenanigans is in great form and has a strong record at Flemington but may have to work early from a wide draw.
Material Dreams has been closing off strongly in her runs and could be the best late closer in the race.
Bossy Nic struggled last start but has previous form that suggests she can be competitive at this level.
He’s Our Bonneval resumes and has strong first-up form, so he can’t be dismissed.
Final Thoughts
Wiggum deserves to win with how well he’s been racing, and this looks the right race for him. Veloce Carro is the best value option given his improvement factor. Both should be right in the finish.
Chorlton Lane has been knocking on the door with four straight runs where he’s drawn the inside gate and gone down narrowly each time. He’s now back to 1400m at Flemington, which should be much more suitable. With a better race shape and luck, this looks like the right race for him to break through.
💰Best Value: Aztec Ruler ($7.50)
Aztec Ruler has been solid in Melbourne since arriving from Perth. He ran well in the G3 Standish Handicap at his first run here and followed it up with an even effort in the Barton Stakes. He meets Chorlton Lane 1kg better this time and could turn the tables at a value price.
🎯 Race Insights
Rise At Dawn is unbeaten first-up and in winning form but might find this tougher with Buffalo River ensuring a strong tempo.
Just Folk was good fresh and rates well, but he tends to find one better in these races.
Poison Chalice will improve getting back to 1400m and is one to keep safe.
Communist ($14.00) is a Group 1 winner resuming and could surprise at odds.
Final Thoughts
Chorlton Lane is overdue and gets his chance in a suitable race, while Aztec Ruler offers solid each-way value with improvement expected. Both should be right in the finish.
Henlein resumes after a strong Spring Champion Stakes campaign, where he ran second behind El Castello, a horse that was in peak form. He’s clearly got Group-class talent, and while he might be better suited over further, his jumpouts have been sharp, suggesting he’ll be competitive fresh over 1400m. If the pace is solid, he will be storming home late.
💰 Best Value: Goldrush Guru ($13.00)
Goldrush Guru had no luck first-up against older horses when trapped wide in the Durbridge Stakes. The step up to 1400m suits, and back against his own age group, he looks primed for a strong showing. Getting Jamie Kah back aboard is a big plus, and at $13, he represents solid value.
🎯 Race Insights
Feroce has the strongest overall form lines but may be under the odds given the depth in this race.
Royal Insignia is on an upward trajectory, coming off a G3 Manfred Stakes win and should handle the rise in trip.
Sepals ($14.00) is an emerging runner chasing a hat-trick and maps well with Blake Shinn aboard.
Wonder Boy ($15.00) is another at a price that could surprise, needing to prove himself at this level.
Final Thoughts
Henlein is a class runner at an attractive price, and Goldrush Guru looks set to improve second-up. Both should be in the finish, and this is a race where playing multiple runners could be a smart approach.
Growing Empire had an outstanding Spring campaign, running against the best sprinters in the country. While he was no match for Switzerland in the Coolmore Stud Stakes, that came at the tail end of a tough prep. He has been ridden quietly in trials leading into this, which suggests a change of tactics to let him settle and launch late. If he’s ridden cold, he could explode and turn the tables on Switzerland over the 1000m trip.
💰 Best Value: I Am Me ($8.00)
I Am Me loves the short-course sprinting and has a 4/6 record first-up, including a Group 2 win over Bella Nipotina fresh last campaign. The 1000m suits her more than some of the fitter 1200m types in this race, and she has drawn the right part of the track to be in the finish. At $8, she is a value runner who can catch some of the classier types off guard fresh.
🎯 Race Insights
Switzerland is the deserved favorite and a serious racehorse, but his best work has come over 1200m. At short odds, he may be vulnerable first-up over 1000m.
Traffic Warden ($12.00) is a lightly raced talent who failed in the Coolmore but had excuses. He’s better than that, and if the race is run to suit, he could surprise.
Mazu ($18.00) is a Group 1 sprinter who will need to be at his absolute best first-up, but he has a chance to run a place at big odds.
Final Thoughts
Switzerland is the horse to beat, but he’s under the right odds. Growing Empire has had a better lead-up and can turn the tables, while I Am Me is a great value play at each-way odds. Expect the 3YOs to dominate this Group 1 sprint.
Sneaky Sunrise is a lightly raced filly with upside, resuming after a 32-week spell. Her jumpout form has been strong, and she showed plenty of talent as a 2YO. With three trials under her belt, she should be fit and ready to fire first-up. Given her proven ability at this course, she’s a solid play in an open race.
💰 Best Value: Another Prophet ($7.50)
Another Prophet comes out of a strong Thousand Guineas win and ran well first-up in the Manfred Stakes over 1200m. Now fitter and stepping up to 1400m, she looks well placed back against her own sex. Barrier 4 is ideal, and if she can settle a little closer, she’ll be hitting the line hard.
🎯 Race Insights
Captured By Love brings Group 1 New Zealand form, and while she didn’t fire last start, she’s rarely out of the money.
Cilacap ($8.50) is a filly on the rise, coming off an impressive Caulfield Heath win, and she should be storming home late.
Too Darn Discreet ($11.00) is a stayer resuming but trialed well and could be a sneaky place chance if they overdo it up front.
Final Thoughts
Sneaky Sunrise has been well prepared for this and is a great bet at $6, while Another Prophet is over the odds at $7.50 and should be finishing strongly. Expect a competitive finish, but these two look the best betting options.
Is It Me returned to winning form last start over this track and distance, proving he excels at Flemington. While he rises in weight, this is no tougher, and he maps well to get another ideal run in transit. With good second-up form and a race shape that suits, he looks a strong bet at $6.
💰Best Value: It’s Business Time ($23.00)
It’s Business Time was flat first-up but had excuses, carrying 60kg in a sit-and-sprint race against a strong field. She jumped out impressively before resuming, and drops 1.5kg here, which could see her bounce back sharply at massive odds. With a better tempo and fitness improvement, she can surprise.
🎯 Race Insights
Sunshineinmypocket is a progressive type, having won 4 of 5, but the barrier (1) could be a negative if he’s buried back on the rail.
Le Ferrari ($17.00) will be on speed and fighting hard, making him a solid place chance.
El Rocko ($11.00) was solid first-up over 1200m and is much better suited at this 1400m trip.
Final Thoughts
Is It Me is the most reliable bet, having already proven himself at this track and trip. However, at $23, It’s Business Time is a huge value play, with scope to improve sharply second-up. A small saver on Sunshineinmypocket might also be wise, given his upside.
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Imperatriz, the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes winner, is set to make her second-up appearance after a three-month break. In her first-up race, she was the favorite and displayed remarkable prowess by tracking the speed and maintaining a steady pace, ultimately clinching victory by a head at this very track in the G1 Lightning over 1000m. Her previous second-up performance showcased her resilience as she rallied from a disadvantaged position to secure victory at Moonee Valley in the G1 Moir Stks over 1000m. As a star mare, Imperatriz faces a new challenge in this race, and her past achievements speak volumes of her capabilities.
2. Bella Nipotina (4):
Having claimed victory in the Manikato Stakes, Bella Nipotina is on her second run back after a three-month hiatus. In her recent first-up race, she finished 4th at this track in the G1 Lightning over 1000m, trailing Imperatriz by 0.9 lengths. Bella Nipotina’s previous second-up performance saw her securing the 3rd position at Randwick in the G2 Premiere over 1200m. With her consistent performances, she is anticipated to be a strong contender in the upcoming race.
3. Buenos Noches (8):
Buenos Noches, a multiple Group 1 placegetter, is making her second run back after a three-month break. In her first-up race, she showcased an impressive display by surging from last on the turn to secure the 4th position at Randwick in the G2 Expressway over 1200m. Her previous second-up performance saw her finishing 3rd at Randwick in the G2 The Shorts over 1100m. Buenos Noches’ remarkable comeback in her first-up race indicates her potential to perform well in the upcoming event.
5. Ruthless Dame (2):
Ruthless Dame, the winner of the Robert Sangster Stakes, is returning from a spell. In her last preparation, she finished seventh at Rosehill Golden Eagle over 1500m. Her previous first-up race saw her finishing seventh at Randwick in the G2 The Shorts over 1100m. Ruthless Dame’s past achievements position her as a potential contender for a place in the upcoming race.
6. Magic Time (10):
Magic Time, the winner of the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes, is back from a spell. In her last campaign, she claimed victory at Caulfield in the G1 Rup Clarke over 1400m. Upon resuming, she finished fifth at Caulfield in the G3 The Heath 1100 over 1100m. With her talent and past successes, Magic Time appears to be well-placed for the upcoming race.
7. The Astrologist (12):
The Astrologist, a multiple Group 1 placegetter, faced tough competition in her recent races, finishing second last in the G1 Lightning over 1000m and fifth in the G3 Standish over 1200m. Considering her recent performances, it might be prudent to explore other options in this race.
8. Benedetta (9):
Benedetta, a Group 3 winner, is on her second run back after a four-month break. In her recent first-up race, she made some headway from midfield to secure the fourth position at Caulfield in the G1 Oakleigh Plt over 1100m. Her previous second-up performance saw her clinching victory at Caulfield in the G3 Cockram over 1200m. With her consistent performances, Benedetta could be a contender for a place in the upcoming race.
9. It’sourtime (1):
It’sourtime, a Group 3 winner, is making her first-up appearance. In her last campaign, she finished third at this track in the LR Mss Security over 1200m. Upon resuming, she secured the second position at this track in Bm90 over 1200m. However, uncertainties loom over her chances in this competitive field.
10. Master Fay (8):
Master Fay, a Group 3 winner, is set to make his third-up appearance after a 42-day break. In his recent races, he claimed victory at Tauranga Rating 75 over 1200m and Ellerslie G3 Concorde over 1200m. Despite his winning form, the tough competition in this race presents a significant challenge for Master Fay.
12. Sghirripa (6):
Sghirripa, a Group 3 winner, faced tough competition in his recent races, finishing seventh in the G1 Oakleigh Plt over 1100m and claiming victory at this track in the G3 Standish over 1200m. With a better draw in this race, Sghirripa emerges as a strong each-way hope.
13. Skew Wiff (5):
Skew Wiff, the winner of the Tarzino Trophy, is making her second-up appearance. In her recent races, she finished thirteenth in the G1 Oakleigh Plt over 1100m and claimed victory at Hastings G1 Tarzino Trpy over 1400m. However, her chances in this race appear slim.
14. Cylinder (11):
Cylinder, a multiple Group 2 winner, is on her second-up appearance after a four-month break. In her recent race, she finished sixth in the G1 Lightning over 1000m and claimed victory at Rosehill G2 Run To Rose over 1200m. While she has the potential to improve, the competitive field poses a challenge for Cylinder.
Speed map
Finding early speed or leaders in the upcoming race seems challenging. Imperatriz notably led in the Manikato and the Lightning, but with 58kg, the question arises whether they are willing to take that potential risk. Master Fay showcased speed in a recent Flemington jumpout. Apart from these contenders, identifying a clear frontrunner is difficult. Perhaps The Astrologist could emerge as a possibility?
Tips
1 Imperatriz
A victory here would unquestionably solidify her status as a champion. Her comeback in the Lightning was nothing short of spectacular as she led from start to finish. Despite facing a formidable opponent in Private Eye, she showcased remarkable bravery, finding another gear and finishing strongest to secure the win. If she can carry top weight and triumph in this race, she will undoubtedly reinforce her champion status. However, from a betting perspective, I am hesitant to take this proposition.
3 Buenos Noches
Matty Smith faces a three-week gap between runs since his comeback in the Expressway at Randwick. In that race, I felt he was ridden too conservatively, setting him an almost insurmountable challenge. Despite finishing strongly, he never posed a serious threat for victory. Notably, he has performed well down the straight before and has been specifically prepared for this race. He could prove to be a formidable contender.
Newmarket weights to determine whether Espiona’s next assignment.
Chris Wallerwill study the weights for this Saturday’s Newmarket Handicap before deciding whether Espionaruns in the $1.5 million event at Flemington or returns to Sydney.
The daughter of Extreme Choice caught the eye late when steaming home into third placing in the 1000-metre Black Caviar Lightning, won by Imperatriz.
The star Kiwi mare was late last week confirmed as a Newmarket starter, where she is expected to be 58kg topweight, and Waller said how Espiona measures up against her and some of the other better-performed nominations will determine whether she takes her place in the 1200m race.
“I just want to see not what weight she gets, but how she fares in the weights against the other horses,” Waller said.
If Waller opts against running in the Newmarket, she will most likely appear in the Group 1 Canterbury Stakes at Randwick.
The five-year-old was one of 13 nominations for that $750,000 event, which will herald the return of The Everest winner Think About It, and Waller would not have too much issue seeing her jump from the 1000m of the Lightning to 1300m second-up.
“I don’t see 1300 metres being much of a problem, I think it is a good distance for her,” he said.
“Her first-up run was terrific. She is effective now both ways as well as up the straight.”
Espiona is one of two Canterbury Stakes nominations for Waller, who also has Golden Slipper winner Shinzoentered.
The valuable son of Snitzel has not started since his third placing in the Coolmore Stud Stakes third placing and Waller tossing up whether he is ready for the 1300m first-up.
“I’ve still got to make a decision if Shinzo is quite ready for it,” he said.
Shinzo had had two trials this preparation, a third over 900m at Randwick on February 8 before a sixth placing in an 850m trial at Randwick a fortnight later.
Mr Brightside will chase Group 1 honours in the Champions Mile at Flemington.
The Lindsay Park team of Ben, Will and J D Hayes would like a little luck to go their way in what has been a frustrating week at Flemington.
After Mr Brightside was touched out in the Cox Plate at Moonee Valley, the Hayes boys have suffered narrow losses with Apulia and Crosshaven earlier in Melbourne Cup week.
“With a bit of luck, we could be having a great Cup Carnival,” Ben Hayes said.
The Lindsay Park stable is pinning their hopes in Mr Brightside to end Cup week with a Group 1 win in the Champions Mile (1600m) on Saturday.
Hayes said the stable made the decision to come back from the 2040m of the Cox Plate when beaten by Romantic Warrior to Saturday’s journey with a view of a potential trip to Hong Kong.
“He’s an elite miler, so if we do decide to go to Hong Kong, it gives us more options,” Hayes said.
“We can stay at the mile or go to 2000 metres in Hong Kong, but we’ve got to get through this run first and see how he recovers from it.
“We haven’t committed to anything yet. He’s in the sixth run for the prep and these good horses, you do need to look after them.
“It’s something we’ll discuss with the team after the run.”
Hayes said Mr Brightside had remained at Flemington since his Cox Plate defeat and had freshened up nicely for his tilt on Saturday.
Mr Brightside will also be racing in blinkers again as the gelding looks to improve on his fourth in the corresponding race in 2021, when run as a handicap, then third last year.
“He’s probably due and there will be no excuses,” Hayes said.
“He hasn’t missed a day’s work. We’ve kept him at Flemington since the Cox Plate and we’ve always said that he thrives racing two weeks, two weeks, and that is what is happening here.
“He’s done so well and is a happy, enjoyable horse.
“I never get sick about talking about Mr Brightside, but if I ever do, slap me.”
Hong Kong’s Romantic Warrior has scored a last stride thrilling win in the Cox Plate at Moonee Valley.
Champion James McDonald’s faith in Hong Kong superstar Romantic Warriorhas been vindicated with the jockey landing a second Cox Plate victory.
After guiding Anamoeto success in last year’s Group 1 weight-for-age championship, McDonald had to call on all his strength to get Romantic Warrior home in the 2040m contest at Moonee Valley on Saturday.
McDonald never lost faith in Romantic Warrior despite the Danny Shum-trained gelding being beaten at his Australian debut in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington on October 7.
Starting the $3.60 favourite, Romantic Warrior scored by a nose from Mr Brightside ($9) with Alligator Blood ($6) a short-neck away third.
Romantic Warrior returned a win dividend of $2.80 on the World Pool.
McDonald made trips to Hong Kong to partner Romantic Warrior to win the lead up to the Hong Kong Cup as well as the Hong Kong Cup at the international meeting last year and was also aboard gelding to win the Queen Elizabeth II Cup in April.
“This horse is pretty special to me,” McDonald said.
“I mentioned if he came to a Cox Plate, he’d be a suitable horse. I meant what I said and credit to (owner) Peter (Lau Pak Fai) and Danny.
“It takes a hell of a lot of balls to come out of Hong Kong with all the prizemoney there. It is one of the best racing jurisdictions in the world and they come here and showcase their boy.
“I reckon he’s got more to come, too.
“He’s been bubbling. He showed a significant amount of improvement like I thought he would, and he loves the bloody Valley!”
The first three horses across the line were positioned third, fourth and fifth in the running line behind King Colorado and Zaaki.
McDonald elected to ease three wide racing to the 600m mark with Alligator Blood taking up his spot.
Romantic Warrior wobbled slightly around the turn, as did Zaaki which allowed Mr Brightside to get up on the fence to hit the front 50m out, only to be grabbed on the line.
McDonald said he was comfortable where Romantic Warrior was positioned in the race.
“I knew I was on the right horse, and I kept going, ‘he’s the best horse, he’s the best horse’ so I’d ride him like it,” McDonald said.
“I took a gamble about the 1000 (metres) or 1200. We elected to come back a spot and to the minute right now I believe that was the winning move.”
Shum said it had been a gamble to send Romantic Warrior from Hong Kong to contest Saturday’s race.
Romantic Warrior had to adapt to different training conditions in quarantine at Werribee having not raced since late in May in Hong Kong.
The gelding had an interrupted preparation before arrival in Australia missing an important trial and initially not taking to a change in feed.
But Romantic Warrior was able to overcome that adversity to claim Australia’s best race.
“I don’t know how to tell you how happy I am. I am really happy,” Shum said.
“I want to thank Peter the owner for giving permission to come here. James Mcdonald, all the team, all the Hong Kong fans, my wife Christine, my son Aaron.
“I love you! I love you!”
After Romantic Warrior’s first-up Australian defeat, Shum said he was a little deflated, but knew the gelding would improve with the outing.
“He was not really ready, but he got better day-by-day,” Shum said.
“I was confident he would run a good race, but it is a strong race.
“He overcame all of the challenges and the difficulties. James McDonald gave me a very good report.”
Shum said Romantic Warrior would return to Hong Kong as early as possible to prepare for the Group 1 Hong Kong Cup (2000m) at Sha Tin on December 10.
Monee Valley Cup winner jumps to 14th in order of entry.
A penalty for his Moonee Valley Cup win, combined with natural attrition, has Clevelandsafely in the field for next week’s $8.4 million Group 1 Melbourne Cup.
Racing Victoria’s head of handicapping David Hegan issued the Kris Lees-trained entire a 0.5kg penalty for Friday night’s win under 55.5kg, taking his Melbourne Cup weight to 52kg.
Placed 24th in the order of entry prior to the win, Cleveland elevated a few spots owing to several higher-weighted runners not being paid-up as third-round acceptors and now sits in 14th position after the penalty.
“Under the set weights and penalty conditions of the Moonee Valley Gold Cup, Cleveland was allocated the base weight on Friday night,” Hegan said.
“Thus, he came in well at the weights against some of his opposition on the night and compared to where they are in the Melbourne Cup weights.
“Vow and Declare and Future History will now meet Cleveland 0.5kg and 3kg better respectively in the Melbourne Cup after the penalty. If the luckless Athabascan makes the field it would be a 3.5kg turnaround in his favour against Cleveland too.”
Cleveland becomes the first Moonee Valley Gold Cup winner to receive a Melbourne Cup penalty since 2015 when The United States moved to 52.5kg with a 2.5kg penalty.
Cleveland will be one of two Melbourne Cup runners for six-time winner Lloyd Williams and his partners after Epsom Derby winner Serpentinejumped to 22nd in the order of entry.
In 23rd position is More Felons with True Marvel 24th but those two are not yet guaranteed a run with a ballot exemption on offer to the winner of Saturday’s The Archer at Flemington, while Wednesday’s Bendigo Cup contains two runners – Hasta La War (29th) and Interpretation(31st) – who can elevate their position in the order of entry if they win and receive a penalty.
