Twenty Million Reasons to Tune In — We’ve Got You Covered!
Confidence is sky-high after we tipped 10 winners from 14 previews last week, and the stakes only rise this weekend. It’s Derby Day at Flemington and Golden Eagle Day at Randwick — two of the biggest cards of the spring. Over $20 million in prizemoney is on the line across a blockbuster 12-race blog, headlined by the Victoria Derby (2500 m), Coolmore Stud Stakes, Empire Rose Stakes, and Sydney’s $10 million Golden Eagle (1500 m). Group 1 stars like Fangirl, Beadman, Observer, and Autumn Glow step out in search of glory, and we’ve gone through every race to find the best bets and biggest value for punters.
🏇 Flemington Race 1 — Channel 9 Carbine Club Stakes (1600m)
📝 Race Overview:
We kick off Derby Day with a quality edition of the Carbine Club Stakes — a proven launching pad for future Group winners. Expect a genuine tempo with Regal Award and Vinrock pressing forward, setting up perfectly for the strong closers late. The Waller stable holds a powerful hand, looking to extend their dominant record in this race.
🔥 Best to Back Tip:
VINROCK (Odds: $4.20)
⚡ “Class colt who ran a bold race in the Caulfield Guineas and now finds an ideal target dropping back to this grade. Maps to sit just off the speed and should be peaking third-up — the one they’ll all need to run down.”
💎 Best Value Bet:
PANOVA (Odds: $6.50)
💥 “Made sharp improvement last start breaking her maiden at Randwick and looks primed for the mile. Waller-trained fillies have an elite strike rate in this race, and she can measure up again with the right run.”
🏇 Flemington Race 2 — The TAB Vanity (1400m)
📝 Race Overview:
The Vanity often unearths a rising star, and this year’s edition looks no different with several promising fillies stepping up in trip. Expect a genuine tempo, with Chatterley and Sheza Alibi both mapping prominently while a few classy closers look to have the final say late.
🔥 Best to Back Tip:
SHEZA ALIBI(Odds: $2.80)
⚡ “Smart filly who’s yet to run a bad race and looks perfectly placed up to 1400m. Her return behind Tentryis and Raging Force was full of merit, and she gets the ideal setup to go one better here.”
💎 Best Value Bet:
CHATTERLEY (Odds: $9.00)
💥 “Consistent and hard to fault — placed all four career starts and should get the gun run just behind the leaders. If she sees daylight in the straight, she’s right in the mix to break through at a nice price”
🏇 Flemington Race 3 — G.H. Mumm Rising Fast Stakes (1200m)
📝 Race Overview:
A strong sprint feature early on the card, with several genuine Group-class sprinters resuming or peaking third-up. Expect solid early speed from Hedged and Caballus, while the proven straight-track specialists will be launching late. This is always a key form race leading into the Darley Sprint Classic.
🔥 Best to Back Tip:
CABALLUS (Odds: $4.60)
⚡ “Closed strongly in the Sydney Stakes and gets his preferred setup second-up over 1200m. Maps beautifully just behind the speed and looks well-placed to make a big impact at a value price.”
💎 Best Value Bet:
HEDGED (Odds: $6.00)
💥 “Smart sprinter who chased home the in-form Jigsaw when fresh and now looks set to peak second-up. Has always shown talent, and the Flemington straight should play right into his hands — the one to beat.”
🏇 Flemington Race 4 — HKJC World Pool Wakeful Stakes (2000m)
📝 Race Overview:
A traditional Oaks lead-up and a fascinating clash between the emerging stayers and the Thousand Guineas graduates. Expect an honest tempo from Voting Rights and Fashionable, with the stronger late closers getting their chance down the long Flemington straight.
🔥 Best to Back Tip:
GETTA GOOD FEELING Odds: $1.65)
⚡ “Ran a terrific third in the Thousand Guineas and looks perfectly suited rising to 2000m. Proven against stronger opposition, maps well again, and should be powering through the line late — ready to win.”
💎 Best Value Bet:
FASHIONABLE (Odds: $7.50)
💥 “Progressive filly who continues to improve with every run and gets the blinkers on for the first time. Her recent win showed grit and stamina, and she profiles like one who’ll relish the extra trip at double-figure odds.”
🏇 Flemington Race 5 — The ABC Bullion Damien Oliver (1400m)
📝 Race Overview:
A fittingly strong renewal of the Damien Oliver Stakes, featuring a deep field of in-form milers and progressive types looking to take the next step. Expect tempo from Zou Sensation and Media World, setting it up nicely for the midfield closers like King Zephyr and Payline to finish hard late.
🔥 Best to Back Tip:
WARNIE Odds: $8.50)
⚡ “Flying under the radar after a string of honest efforts and a strong finish in the Moonga. Maps perfectly again and looks ready to strike at a good each-way price — capable of upsetting the favourite if the tempo suits”
💎 Best Value Bet:
PAYLINE(Odds: $11.00)
💥 “Luckless in slowly-run races of late but has the turn of foot to charge home if the pace is genuine. Third-up and suited by a big track — capable of blowing this open late”
🏇 Flemington Race 6 — Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m)
📝 Race Overview:
A high-class renewal of the prestigious Coolmore Stud Stakes — the grand final for Australia’s best three-year-old sprinters. The form lines through the Danehill and Roman Consul are strong as ever, and the famous Flemington straight promises another thrilling finish. Expect Beadman and Tentyris to control the market, with plenty of untapped talent chasing them home.
🔥 Best to Back Tip:
TENTYRIS Odds: $4.00)
⚡ “Has returned in superb order after overcoming an early setback and now finds his ideal setup. Proven Group-class colt who can quicken sharply off the right tempo — he’s the one who can make the favourite sweat late.”
💎 Best Value Bet:
BEADMAN (Odds: $5.00)
💥 “Talented colt who’s been building perfectly for this. His Roman Consul run screamed ‘next time,’ and a strong Flemington jumpout since confirms he’s right at his peak. Proven down the straight and looks every inch a Coolmore winner in waiting.”
🏇 Flemington Race 7 — Howden Victoria Derby (2500m)
📝 Race Overview:
The time-honoured Victoria Derby headlines the opening day of the Flemington Carnival, bringing together an even bunch of three-year-old stayers. Recent history says the Vase and Super Impose form lines are key, and this year’s edition looks no different — several have traded blows in the lead-ups, with little separating the leading chances. Expect a genuinely run staying test with the tempo likely coming from the likes of Observer and Autumn Mystery.
🔥 Best to Back Tip:
OBSERVER Odds: $2.15)
⚡ “Took full control in the Vase last week and looks to have come of age at the right time. Proven Group performer who makes his own luck up front and gives the impression 2500m will hold no fears. The one they’ll have to catch.”
💎 Best Value Bet:
MIEWA (Odds: $18.00)
💥 “Powerful closer who’s been screaming out for this trip. Sectional data out of both the Caulfield and Moonee Valley lead-ups was outstanding, and he profiles as the one to launch late if the leaders overdo it. Genuine each-way threat”
🏇 Flemington Race 8 — TAB Empire Rose Stakes (1600m)
📝 Race Overview:
A Group 1 contest for the mares, and as always, the Empire Rose looks set to produce a stirring finish down the long Flemington straight. Many return from the Toorak and Tristarc form lines, while proven elite mares like Fangirl and Pride Of Jenni headline a classy lineup. Expect a strong mid-race tempo with Fangirl and Leica Lucy charging home from the back.
🔥 Best to Back Tip:
FANGIRL Odds: $4.00)
⚡ “Top-class mare who was luckless in the King Charles when shuffled back early and never got clear air. She’s far better suited here under Group 1 mares’ conditions and the big Flemington straight will play to her strength — she’s ready to explode.”
💎 Best Value Bet:
PRIDE OF JENNI (Odds: $5.00)
💥 “The 2022 winner of this race and comes in fit, firing, and likely to control the tempo from the front. Her King Charles run was brave after doing plenty of work early — if she gets an easier time here, she’ll take plenty of catching.”
🏇 Flemington Race 9 — Kirin Ichiban Sprint (1100m)
📝 Race Overview:
A cracking sprint to close out the Group races, featuring some of the most talented mares and fillies in work. Expect early heat from She’s Bulletproof and Arabian Summer, while the swoopers like Soft Love and Generosity will be looking to storm home late down the straight. The form out of the Caulfield sprints should hold up strongly here.
🔥 Best to Back Tip:
ARABIAN SUMMER Odds: $5.00)
⚡ “Was luckless in the Schillaci before doing all the work early in the Caulfield Sprint. Drops in grade here and gets a nice setup to sit just off the leaders. If she gets the split at the right time, she’s a massive threat at each-way odds.”
💎 Best Value Bet:
SOFT LOVE (Odds: $7.00)
💥 “Flying this prep and just missed in the Alinghi last start after charging through traffic. Her sectionals were elite, and the Flemington straight will give her every chance to showcase that turn of foot. Ready to win.”
🏇 Randwick Race 7 — Russell Balding Stakes (1300m)
📝 Race Overview:
A star-studded edition of the Russell Balding Stakes, traditionally a post-Everest showdown for Sydney’s elite sprinters. Several line up here straight out of The Everest and other major Group 1 features, promising a high-quality clash. Expect Jimmysstar and Lady Shenandoah to press forward with Private Eye stalking close and looking to unleash late.
🔥 Best to Back Tip:
JIMMYSTAR Odds: $2.80)
⚡ “Ran a mighty race for third in The Everest behind Ka Ying Rising and Overpass — outstanding form for this level. He’s still lightly raced with untapped upside and gets the perfect stalking run just off the speed. Capable of producing the upset.”
💎 Best Value Bet:
PRIVATE EYE (Odds: $9.00)
💥 “Proven Randwick performer and perfectly suited stepping back from 1400m. Fresh off a dominant win at Caulfield and profiles ideally to replicate his 2022 success in this exact race. The one they’ll need to run down late.”
🏇 Randwick Race 8 — Golden Eagle (1500m)
📝 Race Overview:
The $10 million Golden Eagle headlines a huge day at Randwick, and this year’s edition has genuine global quality. Australian stars clash with a dangerous Japanese raider, and the setup promises a truly run race with early pressure from out wide. Expect a strong tempo — perfect for those with a powerful finish like Autumn Glow and Linebacker.
🔥 Best to Back Tip:
AUTUMN GLOW Odds: $2.00)
⚡ “The Epsom winner and emerging superstar of the spring. She was dominant last start, proving her class against older rivals, and now drops back to her own age. Draws ideally, handles any surface, and looks set to stamp herself as the queen of the Golden Eagle”
💎 Best Value Bet:
LINEBACKER (Odds: $6.00)
💥 “A model of consistency who’s been expertly placed for this race. His win here last start was full of authority, and he maps perfectly to stalk the leaders and pounce late. Proven at Randwick and improving every start — this is his grand final.”
🏇 Randwick Race 9 — Rosehill Gold Cup (2000m)
📝 Race Overview:
The $750,000 Rosehill Gold Cup closes out a massive Golden Eagle Day, and this year’s edition shapes as a tactical battle between proven Group performers and progressive stayers. Expect 10 and 5 to roll forward, setting a genuine tempo, while the likes of Maison Louis and Wootton Verni stalk close in striking range.
🔥 Best to Back Tip:
MAISON LOUIS (Odds: $4.50)
⚡ “The Queensland Derby winner continues to build a serious resume. His Hill Stakes run was excellent against stronger opposition, and the step up to 2000m looks ideal. From a soft draw, he should camp just off the speed and be launching late.”
💎 Best Value Bet:
FAWKNER PARK(Odds: $15.00)
💥 “Last year’s winner who’s back with a new yard and trialling superbly. Proven at the trip and conditions; if he finds rhythm midfield he can easily repeat at juicy odds.”
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