Last week we found 2 winners from 8 races on Guineas Day!
- FIERCE (Odds: ~$2.50)
- WARWOVEN (Odds: ~$2.35)
Spring racing hits its absolute peak this Saturday with a double header that simply doesn’t get any bigger. The TAB Everest and the Caulfield Cup share the same afternoon — the richest sprint in the land alongside one of the great staying tests — and we’ve got eight feature races to dissect across Randwick and Caulfield.
At Randwick, The TAB Everest headlines an outstanding card. The world’s richest turf sprint has attracted another stellar field of twelve, headlined by the extraordinary Ka Ying Rising chasing back-to-back wins. We’ll also cover the Group 1 King Charles III Stakes and the Silver Eagle on what is a blockbuster day at headquarters.
Down in Melbourne, Caulfield Cup Day is the centrepiece of the spring carnival. The Group 1 Caulfield Cup over 2400m is a genuine race for the ages, with Cosmic Crusader the horse they all have to beat. The Thousand Guineas and the Tristarc Stakes round out a massive Caulfield card.
With so much quality racing across two states, we’ve done the form and narrowed down our best bets and value plays for every race. Let’s get into it.
🏇 Randwick R7 1200m – Group 1 The TAB Everest
📝 Race Overview: The richest turf sprint in the world and it has a worthy favourite. Ka Ying Rising is chasing consecutive Everest wins and has been nothing short of sensational throughout his career. The question isn’t whether he’s the best horse in the race — it’s whether anything can find a way to beat him. Tempo and barrier position will be critical in a capacity field.
🔥 Best Bet: KA YING RISING 💰 Odds: ~$1.50 ⚡ The numbers speak for themselves — 22 wins from 24 career starts and over $30 million in earnings. He’s proven at the distance, proven at the track, and proven at the highest level. Zac Purton rides with supreme confidence and from barrier 11 he should get a perfect trail. He’s the best sprinter we’ve seen in years and it’s hard to see him being beaten here.
💎 Best Value: TEMPTED 💰 Odds: ~$4.80 💥 Nine wins from 14 starts and rising through the grades at a rapid rate. This four-year-old mare has real quality and the 2kg claim for her sex helps at set weights. From barrier 1 she maps to get a lovely run on the fence and if the speed is genuine, she’s the type to be charging late. A genuine chance at a nice price.
🏇 Randwick R8 1300m – Listed Silver Eagle
📝 Race Overview: A quality four-year-old sprint that doubles as a lead-up to the Golden Eagle in three weeks. Skyhook was dominant last start in the Shannon Stakes and looks the one to beat, though several lightly-raced types add real intrigue to what should be a genuinely run affair.
🔥 Best Bet: SKYHOOK 💰 Odds: ~$3 ⚡ Impressive winner of the Shannon Stakes at Rosehill last start where he led and was never headed. Six wins from 15 starts and his front-running style suits the Randwick 1300m. Three weeks between runs is ideal and from barrier 5 he’ll roll forward and be hard to peg back.
💎 Best Value: DECORUM 💰 Odds: ~$8 💥 Five wins from just seven career starts — that’s a seriously progressive record for a four-year-old. He’s lightly raced and comes into this on the back of consistent form. From barrier 2 he maps to get a lovely run just behind the pace and at this price he looks terrific each-way value in an open sprint.
🏇 Randwick R9 1609m – Group 1 King Charles III Stakes
📝 Race Overview: A small but select field for this Group 1 mile. Autumn Glow is one of the most remarkable racehorses in training with 13 wins from 14 starts and she towers over this field on ratings. The only question is whether the small field and a potential lack of genuine pace can create an upset scenario for one of the roughies.
🔥 Best Bet: AUTUMN GLOW 💰 Odds: ~$1.45 ⚡ Simply extraordinary — 13 wins from 14 career starts and nearly $10 million in prizemoney. She’s unbeaten at this distance and James McDonald partners from barrier 4. Chris Waller has her in peak form and she’s the type of mare who just keeps lifting when challenged. The short price is fully justified.
💎 Best Value: CEOLWULF 💰 Odds: ~$3.80 💥 Seven wins and over $11 million in career earnings make him a proven Group 1 performer. He’s drawn perfectly in barrier 1 where Chad Schofield can park him on the fence and save ground. In a small field he could get a soft lead or sit one-out-one-back and if the pace is slow, he’s the danger most likely to give Autumn Glow something to think about.
🏇 Randwick R10 1400m – HKJC World Pool Handicap (Bm88)
📝 Race Overview: A big-field 1400m handicap to close the Randwick card and a genuinely competitive affair. Cross Tasman heads the market after placing at both starts this preparation, while Ertijaaj resumes off a last-start win with a big weight advantage. Expect a solid tempo with several on-pace runners engaged.
🔥 Best Bet: CROSS TASMAN 💰 Odds: ~$2.70 ⚡ His form string of 122X22 tells the story — placed at both starts this campaign and rarely runs a bad race. Gets blinkers on for the first time which is a positive gear change and from barrier 14 he should settle midfield with cover over the 1400m. He’s clearly the top-rated runner in the field at 60kg and looks the one to beat.
💎 Best Value: ERTIJAAJ 💰 Odds: ~$5.75 💥 Won last start when fresh at Rosehill and the form string X115X1 shows he’s a talented type on his day. Drawn barrier 4 in a big field of 19 is a significant advantage — he maps to get a lovely run with cover just behind the speed. At 52kg he gets an 8kg pull on the favourite and at the price he looks a genuine each-way prospect.
🏇 Caulfield R7 1600m – Group 1 Stow Storage Thousand Guineas
📝 Race Overview: The classic three-year-old fillies’ mile and a race full of potential. Several unbeaten types clash here for the first time and the step to 1600m will sort out the stayers from the sprinters. Saintly Dancer and Regal Ambition are the market principals but this looks a wide-open Guineas with several live chances.
🔥 Best Bet: REGAL AMBITION 💰 Odds: ~$4.40 ⚡ Two wins and a second from just three career starts — she’s done nothing wrong. She steps to 1600m for the first time but her pedigree suggests the trip will suit and she’s clearly got talent to burn. Michael Dee rides and from barrier 11 she should get a lovely run with cover in transit. The step up in class is the test but the form is strong enough to handle it.
💎 Best Value: DE ARMAS 💰 Odds: ~$7.50 💥 Two wins from five starts for the Chris Waller stable and she’s been aimed at this race. William Pike is a key booking — he rarely comes to Melbourne without a live chance. From barrier 7 she’ll get every opportunity to settle in a nice position and the Waller-Pike combination commands respect. At the price she looks great value.
🏇 Caulfield R8 1200m – Group 3 Catanach’s Jewellers Blue Sapphire Stakes
📝 Race Overview: A three-year-old sprint that has attracted a quality field of a dozen. Over Excited has the strongest form credentials after winning fresh last start, while Doubt Time was an impressive debut winner at Caulfield and goes up significantly in grade. The inexperience factor makes this a tricky betting race.
🔥 Best Bet: OVER EXCITED 💰 Odds: ~$3.10 ⚡ Won fresh last start and is a filly by Zoustar out of I Am Excited — bred to sprint. One win and a second from three starts and Damian Lane sticking with her is a big endorsement. At just three starts she’s still well ahead of the handicapper and in a race where many are still learning, her experience edge could be decisive.
💎 Best Value: DOUBT TIME 💰 Odds: ~$4.60 💥 Won impressively on debut at Caulfield in soft ground, suggesting he handles the track. By Doubtland and just two starts old, there’s a mountain of upside here. Mark Zahra rides which is a positive and while the step to Group 3 level is a test, he’s shown enough raw talent to suggest he belongs. The price looks fair for a horse with his ceiling.
🏇 Caulfield R9 2400m – Group 1 Sportsbet Caulfield Cup
📝 Race Overview: The great staying test of the spring and a fascinating edition. Cosmic Crusader looms as the horse to beat after his dominant Turnbull Stakes victory, but he rises sharply in weight and has never raced beyond 2000m. Half Yours defends his title but is drawn wide in barrier 7 carrying topweight. The internationals add intrigue with several proven European stayers in the mix.
🔥 Best Bet: COSMIC CRUSADER 💰 Odds: ~$4.80 ⚡ Eleven wins from 22 starts including a brilliant Turnbull Stakes victory three weeks ago where William Pike produced him perfectly. The query is the step to 2400m for the first time, but his racing pattern suggests the trip will suit — he relaxes beautifully and has a devastating turn of foot. William Pike stays on and from barrier 17 he’ll need luck, but Pike is the master at finding a path through traffic.
💎 Best Value: ZAHRANN 💰 Odds: ~$8 💥 Four wins from 11 starts with two of those at 2400m — he’s already proven at the trip. He’s drawn ideally in barrier 4 where Ethan Brown can slot into a beautiful position with cover. His Caulfield form is strong — a win and a second from two starts at the track. At these odds he looks outstanding each-way value in a Caulfield Cup that looks more open than the market suggests.
🏇 Caulfield R10 1400m – Group 2 Nationwide Tristarc Stakes
📝 Race Overview: A quality mares’ race to close the card and Concord Connie has the market captivated. Three wins from five starts and impressive every time — she’s clearly the one they all have to beat. The race looks set to be run at a solid tempo which should suit the closers in the field.
🔥 Best Bet: CONCORD CONNIE 💰 Odds: ~$2.50 ⚡ Three wins from five career starts including two at 1400m — this is her trip. The four-year-old mare by Contributer has won at every start this preparation and Jett Stanley has partnered her in all three wins. Her record is impeccable and while the step to Group 2 is a test, she’s the class runner of the field. Hard to go past.
💎 Best Value: SHADHAVAR 💰 Odds: ~$6 💥 Six wins from 17 starts with a strong Caulfield record — two wins and two seconds from four runs at the track. She handles the 1400m well having already won at the trip and Craig Williams is a key jockey booking. At the price she looks a genuine value play — her track form alone makes her a significant each-way threat.
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