Last week we found 4 winners from 8 races on Victoria Derby Day!
- THE NEXT EPISODE (Odds: ~$3.30)
- STORMY MARCO (Odds: ~$4.20)
- LADY SHENANDOAH (Odds: ~$1.95)
- FLYING FOR FUN (Odds: ~$2.25)
It doesn’t get bigger than this. Melbourne Cup Day at Flemington is the race that stops a nation, and the 2026 edition shapes as one of the most open renewals in years. The Group 1 Lexus Melbourne Cup over 3200 metres is the centrepiece of the entire spring carnival, and a field of twenty-four will contest the famous two-mile handicap on a Soft 5 track with moderate rain about.
Beyond the Cup itself, Flemington has assembled a quality supporting card across the afternoon. The Listed Crown Amanda Elliott for three-year-olds, the Group 3 Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes for the mares, the Listed Asahi Super Dry Plate and the Australian Heritage Cup over 2800 metres all provide strong form tests in their own right.
We’ve covered six races from R4 through to R9, with the Cup the obvious headline act. Four winners from Derby Day keeps the momentum rolling — let’s see if Cup Day can deliver another memorable afternoon.
🏇 Flemington R4 1000m – The Schweppervescence Plate (3YO SW+P)
📝 Race Overview: A quality three-year-old sprint over the Flemington 1000 metres with thirteen runners reduced to eleven after two scratchings. Ole Go and Peyton head the market, with a handful of lightly raced types adding depth. The short trip down the straight should ensure a genuine tempo from the outset.
🔥 Best Bet: OLE GO 💰 Odds: ~$5 ⚡ James McDonald picks up the ride on a colt who won first-up this preparation and now goes second-up where he should be fitter and sharper. His career record of two wins and a second from four starts gives him a 50% win rate and 75% place rate — outstanding numbers for a three-year-old stepping out on Cup Day. The 57kg looks fair in a set-weights-plus-penalty race.
💎 Best Value: PARCAE 💰 Odds: ~$9.50 💥 Two starts for two wins — a perfect 100% strike rate is hard to ignore at any price, let alone $9.50. She carries the filly’s allowance at 55kg and her form string of 11 speaks for itself. The query is whether she’s up to this level against the colts, but the price more than accounts for that and she’s a genuine each-way proposition.
🏇 Flemington R5 2800m – Australian Heritage Cup (Bm96)
📝 Race Overview: A staying handicap over 2800 metres that attracted a strong field of eighteen, reduced to fourteen after scratchings. Jennivamoose is the market leader but her recent form reads 5th and 9th — far from convincing. Tempesti’s consistency and Autumnheat’s back-to-back wins both stand out in a race where stamina will be tested on the rain-affected track.
🔥 Best Bet: TEMPESTI 💰 Odds: ~$6.50 ⚡ A remarkable consistency record — nine wins, seven seconds and six thirds from thirty-three starts for a 27% win rate and 67% place rate. He’s placed at his past two starts (2nd and 3rd) and has the proven staying form that a 2800-metre test on a Soft 5 track demands. Jamie Mott retains the ride at 59.5kg.
💎 Best Value: AUTUMNHEAT 💰 Odds: ~$10 💥 Has won his last two starts and gets in with the minimum 53kg — a significant weight advantage over the top-rated runners. His form string of 1722×45011 shows back-to-back victories at the right end, and at $10 he offers genuine each-way value in a staying race where the light weight could prove decisive over the final stages.
🏇 Flemington R6 1800m – Asahi Super Dry Plate (LR)
📝 Race Overview: A Listed handicap over 1800 metres with a field of ten after four scratchings. Sabaj is the clear market leader at $2.40 but his recent form reads 7th, 10th-plus, 10th-plus — three consecutive poor runs that raise questions despite the short price. St Lawrence’s two straight wins and Al Duca’s outstanding consistency rate make this more competitive than the market suggests.
🔥 Best Bet: ST LAWRENCE 💰 Odds: ~$5 ⚡ Has won his last two starts and James McDonald takes the ride — a powerful combination heading into a Listed race over a trip he’s clearly suited to. His career record of ten wins from thirty-seven starts shows a proven performer, and the form string ending in 211 confirms he’s in the best form of his current preparation. A 56kg allocation looks fair.
💎 Best Value: AL DUCA 💰 Odds: ~$9 💥 Eight wins and nine seconds from twenty-five starts gives him a 32% win rate and a 68% place rate — exceptional consistency at this level. Damian Lane rides at 55.5kg and his recent form includes a second and a fourth from his past two starts. At $9 he’s a serious each-way contender in a race where the favourite’s recent form is far from assured.
🏇 Flemington R7 3200m – Group 1 Lexus Melbourne Cup (Handicap)
📝 Race Overview: The race that stops a nation. Twenty-four runners will line up for the 3200-metre staying championship on a Soft 5 track that should test stamina to the limit. Hopewell Rock heads the market as a progressive UK stayer, but Point Of Law’s Geelong Cup victory and So You Are’s four straight wins ensure this is a wide-open affair. The rain-affected going adds another layer of complexity for a field where many are stepping to the two miles for the first time. Multiple first-time gear changes across the field suggest connections have been preparing for this one shot at history.
🔥 Best Bet: HOPEWELL ROCK 💰 Odds: ~$7 ⚡ The market favourite with an extraordinary 80% place rate from ten career starts — he has missed a placing just twice in his life. A lightly raced stayer who won two starts ago and ran a game second last start before the spell, his progressive staying profile is tailor-made for the Melbourne Cup. Zac Lloyd rides at 54.5kg with Ear Muffs Pre-Race going on for the first time.
💎 Best Value: SO YOU ARE 💰 Odds: ~$12 💥 Has won his last four starts in succession — the longest winning streak of any runner in the field. His form string of 7432421111 tells the story, with those four 1s at the right end confirming a horse in career-best form. A 29% win rate and 71% place rate from twenty-eight starts is excellent, and at 54kg with Rachel King aboard, $12 looks generous for a horse who simply does not know how to lose right now.
🏇 Flemington R8 1400m – Crown Amanda Elliott (LR 3YO)
📝 Race Overview: A Listed race for the three-year-olds over 1400 metres with eleven runners reduced to seven after four scratchings. Ranarsson dominates the market at $2 with a perfect record, but the step to Listed company and a field of promising types could provide a stiffer test than the price suggests. Barracks and Mr Natural shape as the main dangers.
🔥 Best Bet: RANARSSON 💰 Odds: ~$2 ⚡ Unbeaten in two career starts with a 100% win rate — both victories achieved with authority. He steps up to Listed level for the first time but his price reflects the high opinion connections and the market hold. Ben Melham rides at 54kg and if he handles the class rise, he looks the one they all have to beat.
💎 Best Value: BARRACKS 💰 Odds: ~$7.50 💥 An 80% place rate from five starts is outstanding for a three-year-old at this stage of his career. His form string of 224×12 shows he won first-up this preparation and ran second last start — consistent form that suggests he handles whatever is thrown at him. Ethan Brown rides at 58kg and at $7.50 he’s the logical each-way alternative in a race the favourite should win but might not.
🏇 Flemington R9 1400m – Group 3 The Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes (4YO+ Mares SW+P)
📝 Race Overview: A Group 3 set-weights-plus-penalty race for the mares over 1400 metres to round out the feature races on Cup Day. Shadhavar is the clear favourite after winning last start at Caulfield, but So You Pence’s remarkable place strike rate and Terilee’s consistency ensure this is a competitive mares’ race with depth throughout the field.
🔥 Best Bet: SHADHAVAR 💰 Odds: ~$3.20 ⚡ Seven wins from eighteen starts for a 39% win rate and 67% place rate — the class mare in this field. Won last start over 1400 metres at Caulfield and her form string of 12x11x1421 shows she rarely runs a bad race. Craig Williams rides at 58kg in a set-weights race where her rating advantage should prove decisive.
💎 Best Value: SO YOU PENCE 💰 Odds: ~$7.50 💥 A 45% win rate and 82% place rate from eleven starts is among the best consistency records on the entire Cup Day card. Tommy Berry takes the ride at 55kg and she ran a solid third last start first-up, suggesting she should improve second-up over the 1400 metres at Flemington. Equicast goes on for the first time, which hints at connections looking for that extra edge.
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