Last week we found 2 winners from 6 races on Melbourne Cup Day!
- RANARSSON (Odds: ~$1.95)
- SHADHAVAR (Odds: ~$2.80)
Stakes Day brings the curtain down on the Melbourne Cup Carnival, and what a way to finish — three Group 1 features at Flemington headline one of the best cards of the spring. We’ve had a solid run through the carnival and we’re looking to end on a high.
At Flemington we’ll be covering Races 6 through 9, headlined by the Group 1 VRC Champions Sprint, Group 1 VRC Champions Mile and Group 1 TAB Champions Stakes. Three weight-for-age contests featuring some of the best horses in training make this the most star-studded card outside of Cup Day itself.
Across to Rosehill where we’ve got Races 7 through 10, with the Group 2 Hot Danish Stakes and Group 3 Five Diamonds anchoring a quality afternoon of Sydney racing. The supporting races are competitive handicaps that should throw up some value.
We’ve done the form across both cards and narrowed down our best bets and value plays for every race. Let’s get into it.
🏇 Flemington R6 1200m – Group 1 Vrc Champions Sprint
📝 Race Overview: The cream of the sprinting crop clash in this weight-for-age feature down the Flemington straight. Tempted is the star attraction after her brilliant Everest victory, but quality abounds with several Group 1 performers looking to end their spring campaigns on a high. Expect a genuine tempo with speed drawn across the field.
🔥 Best Bet: TEMPTED 💰 Odds: ~$1.80 ⚡ The best sprinter in the country right now. Her form string of 32x111x111 speaks volumes — she’s won six of her past seven starts including The Everest last start at Randwick. Career figures of 10 wins from 15 starts (67% strike rate, 93% place rate) are extraordinary. Gets the 2kg WFA advantage at 56.5kg and looks incredibly hard to beat.
💎 Best Value: JOLIESTAR 💰 Odds: ~$4.80 💥 A genuine Group 1 mare with 10 wins and 5 placings from 24 starts (42% win rate, 83% place rate). Her form reads 3x111x3x23 — she’s placed at her past two starts this preparation after winning three straight last campaign. James McDonald aboard from barrier 10 adds further appeal at each-way odds.
🏇 Flemington R7 1600m – Group 1 Vrc Champions Mile
📝 Race Overview: Autumn Glow is the undisputed star of this race with a record that borders on perfection. The question here is not who wins, but whether anything can challenge her. A small field of nine adds to her dominance, though the WFA conditions and Flemington’s unique layout could give a bold frontrunner a sniff.
🔥 Best Bet: AUTUMN GLOW 💰 Odds: ~$1.20 ⚡ Fourteen wins from fifteen career starts — a 93% win rate with a 100% place rate. That is a once-in-a-generation record. Her form string of 1x1113x111 shows she’s won her past three starts including over the mile at Randwick last time out. James McDonald rides and she gets the 2kg WFA mares’ allowance at 57kg. The price is short but the horse is exceptional.
💎 Best Value: LINDERMANN 💰 Odds: ~$12 💥 Won his most recent start over 1800m at Randwick two weeks ago and drops back to the mile here. His career record of 10 wins from 44 starts includes plenty of form at the highest level, and a 55% place rate shows he consistently finds the frame. Damian Lane riding from barrier 3 gives him every chance to get an economical run.
🏇 Flemington R8 2000m – Group 1 Tab Champions Stakes
📝 Race Overview: The staying feature of Stakes Day and a rematch of several Melbourne Cup runners stepping back in distance. The track conditions will play a role, and the step down from 3200m to 2000m will suit some more than others. A fascinating contest to unpack.
🔥 Best Bet: COSMIC CRUSADER 💰 Odds: ~$3.30 ⚡ Won the Melbourne Cup over 2040m at this track just two weeks ago — that’s the ultimate form reference. His record of 12 wins from 24 starts (50% win rate, 79% place rate) is outstanding, and his form string of 12×1132141 shows remarkable consistency with four wins from his past seven starts. William Pike stays aboard and the step down in distance only helps.
💎 Best Value: SIR DELIUS 💰 Odds: ~$8 💥 Blinkers go on for the first time — a significant tactical change from the Waterhouse-Bott yard. His career record of 7 wins from 17 starts (41% win rate, 76% place rate) shows a very talented horse. Form reads 11x331x446 and while he was only sixth in the Melbourne Cup, he won first-up last preparation and has the class to feature with the headgear change sharpening him up.
🏇 Flemington R9 1100m – Hkjc World Pool Grand Handicap (Bm80)
📝 Race Overview: A wide-open BM80 sprint down the Flemington straight with a big field of 16 plus emergencies. The straight-track form will be crucial and there’s plenty of speed drawn across the barriers. Finding the right one at a price could be the key to a good day.
🔥 Best Bet: EDUCATED 💰 Odds: ~$4.60 ⚡ Four wins from just seven career starts for a 57% strike rate with an 86% place rate — those are elite numbers for a BM80 runner. Her form reads 1x116x221 and she won last start at Seymour over 1100m four weeks ago. Has never missed the top two when in the first three home this campaign and looks well suited at the distance.
💎 Best Value: PRESTIGE LUCKY 💰 Odds: ~$11 💥 Unbeaten in two career starts — both at 1100m — and just won at Bendigo last week. The class jump from Bendigo to Flemington is the query, but a perfect record demands respect. Gets in on the minimum with just 55.5kg and Chad Schofield takes the ride. At $11, he offers genuine value if he handles the step up in grade.
🏇 Rosehill R7 1400m – Group 2 Toyota Forklifts Hot Danish Stakes
📝 Race Overview: A set-weights fillies and mares feature that Lazzura dominates on paper. The scratching of Just Precious has thinned the field, but there are still some mares at longer odds who can keep the favourite honest if the tempo is right.
🔥 Best Bet: LAZZURA 💰 Odds: ~$1.45 ⚡ Won her past two starts including over this trip at Randwick two weeks ago. Her form string of 55x212x311 shows two wins from three starts this campaign with a third at her only other outing. Career figures of 8 wins from 20 starts (40% win rate, 70% place rate) are strong, and Tommy Berry from the inside barrier gives her the run of the race.
💎 Best Value: CHAINS OF LOVE 💰 Odds: ~$9 💥 A lightly raced four-year-old with 4 wins from just 7 starts (57% win rate, 86% place rate). Won last start at Randwick over 1200m three weeks ago and steps up to 1400m here. Her form reads 21x1613x1 — she’s won two of her past three starts and the only question is the distance. At $9 she offers excellent each-way value if she handles the trip.
🏇 Rosehill R8 1800m – Group 3 Five Diamonds
📝 Race Overview: The Five Diamonds is restricted to five-year-olds and brings together a competitive field of middle-distance types. The 1800m trip is a genuine staying test and current form will count for plenty. Several runners come through strong last-start efforts and sorting them out is the puzzle.
🔥 Best Bet: DECLICHY BOULEVARD 💰 Odds: ~$4 ⚡ Won her most recent start over 1500m at Randwick two weeks ago. Career record of 4 wins from 16 starts with an impressive 69% place rate (11 placings from 16 starts) shows remarkable consistency. Her form string of 33x15x3101 includes two wins from her past five starts. Tommy Berry rides again and the step up to 1800m looks well within her scope.
💎 Best Value: WELCOMETOTHESHOW 💰 Odds: ~$7.50 💥 The place rate tells the story — 81% from 21 starts (7 wins, 4 seconds, 6 thirds). He rarely misses the frame. Ran third last start at Randwick over 1500m and his form string of 1189×26133 shows he’s a consistent performer at this level. At $7.50 he’s an outstanding each-way proposition for punters who value reliability.
🏇 Rosehill R9 1100m – Grant Burge Handicap (Bm78)
📝 Race Overview: A fillies and mares BM78 sprint that looks wide open after the scratchings of Nullarbor Jane and Horseshoe Hill. Three runners share favouritism around the $4 mark and this looks a genuine puzzle to unravel. Barrier draws and rider claims could be the deciding factor.
🔥 Best Bet: MERCY ME 💰 Odds: ~$4 ⚡ Three wins from nine starts including a three-win streak earlier in her career that shows she can dominate when in form. Her form reads 2111x20x34 and a 67% place rate from nine starts is strong. Tim Clark rides from barrier 4, giving her a lovely position to settle midfield and finish over them.
💎 Best Value: SHOW BUSINESS 💰 Odds: ~$5.50 💥 Won two starts back at Warwick Farm and her form of 21447414×5 shows she can mix it at this level when things fall her way. Gets in well at the weights with just 54kg and Zac Lloyd aboard from barrier 3 should ensure a handy run throughout. At $5.50 she’s the value play in a race where the favourites are hard to split.
🏇 Rosehill R10 1200m – Kia Ora Bloodlines To Headlines Handicap (Bm78)
📝 Race Overview: The final race of the day and Horseshoe Hill looks the one to beat after the scratching of Rose Aye and Blakemore Avenue reduced the field. The short trip at 1200m up from her last-start 1000m effort is a slight query, but her ability is clear. A competitive handicap to close out a big day.
🔥 Best Bet: HORSESHOE HILL 💰 Odds: ~$2.20 ⚡ Clear market leader with 2 wins from 9 starts and a 56% place rate. Her form reads 12x61067x3 and she ran third last start over 1000m at Warwick Farm two weeks ago, having won the start before that. Steps up from 1000m to 1200m which she’s handled before, and Tommy Berry from barrier 2 should have her in a perfect position throughout.
💎 Best Value: ESMAHLI 💰 Odds: ~$5 💥 A remarkable record of 4 wins from 8 starts (50% win rate, 88% place rate) — only out of the top three once in his career. Won last start over 1200m at Cranbourne two weeks ago and his form string of 13117×221 shows a horse in top form. Nash Rawiller takes the ride and the 60kg is well deserved. Excellent value at $5 behind the favourite.
Odds were captured from Racenet on Thursday 5 November 2026. Scratchings and market moves will continue between now and race time. Always check final fields before placing your bets.
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